Learn trading from the ground up
A free, evidence-first trading education: a beginner's course on stocks (from what a stock is to position sizing and expectancy), a full beginner's course on options, a history of market bubbles, and standalone explainers on the methods behind the research.
The private curriculum: desk foundations, then the Bubble Playbook
The courses below are the free framework. Formations are where we run it: watchlists, sizing and the pre-trade checklist free to any member, the rotation and entry-timing playbook for Pro.
Enter the members' formationsTrading Basics: a beginner's course12 chapters
Trading from zero, in order: what a stock is, how markets and orders work, reading charts and levels, what moves price, and the risk math that keeps you in the game. Twelve chapters, evidence-first, funnelling into the live tools.
- 01
What is a stock? Ownership, price, and why it moves - trading basics, chapter 1
A stock is a fractional ownership claim on a real business, not a lottery ticket. What you actually own, why the price moves second to second, and the one mechanic - buyers vs. sellers - behind all of it.
7 min read - 02
How stock markets actually work - exchanges, bid/ask, and liquidity - trading basics, chapter 2
Behind every trade is an order book matching buyers to sellers. What an exchange really is, why the bid/ask spread is a hidden cost, how liquidity decides whether you get a fair fill, and what market hours change.
7 min read - 03
Order types explained - market, limit, and stop orders - trading basics, chapter 3
The three orders every trader uses, and the slippage trap that empties beginner accounts. When a market order fills at a price you didn't expect, why limit orders trade certainty for control, and how stops actually work.
7 min read - 04
How to read a stock chart - candlesticks, timeframes, and volume - trading basics, chapter 4
A candlestick chart is a record of who won each time slice, buyers or sellers. How to read a single candle, why the timeframe changes the whole story, and what volume confirms - without the pattern mysticism.
7 min read - 05
Support, resistance, and Fibonacci retracement - finding levels that matter - trading basics, chapter 5
Support and resistance are price levels where the buyer/seller balance has flipped before. What makes a level real, why Fibonacci retracements work as a self-fulfilling map, and how to use levels to define risk instead of guessing.
7 min read - 06
What moves a stock price - fundamentals, flows, and narrative - trading basics, chapter 6
Three forces move every stock: fundamentals (what the business earns), flows (who's forced to buy or sell), and narrative (the story the crowd believes). Why the third one drives bubbles, and how to tell which force is in control.
8 min read - 07
Position sizing and risk - the 1% rule that keeps you in the game - trading basics, chapter 7
The reason most beginners blow up isn't bad picks - it's bad sizing. How the 1% risk rule works, why your stop distance sets your share count, and the math that lets you survive a losing streak you will absolutely have.
8 min read - 08
R-multiple and expectancy - does your trading system actually make money? - trading basics, chapter 8
Win rate is the most over-rated number in trading. R-multiples measure every trade in units of risk, and expectancy tells you what you make per trade on average - the one number that decides if a system is worth running.
7 min read - 09
Correlation and diversification - why ten stocks can be one bet - trading basics, chapter 9
Owning ten stocks feels diversified. If they all move together, it's one position with extra steps. What correlation is, why narrative-driven clusters move as one, and how to diversify the risk that actually matters.
7 min read - 10
Why most trading strategies fail - curve-fitting and out-of-sample testing - trading basics, chapter 10
A beautiful backtest is the easiest thing to fake and the easiest way to lose money. What curve-fitting is, why a strategy that worked on the past can be worthless, and the walk-forward bar that 46% of QA's tested strategies failed.
7 min read - 11
Building a trading playbook - turning rules into a repeatable process - trading basics, chapter 11
The market doesn't beat most traders - their own emotions do. A written playbook converts good intentions into rules you can follow under pressure: entry criteria, risk limits, a trade journal, and the discipline loop that improves them.
7 min read - 12
Your first trade - a pre-flight checklist - trading basics, chapter 12
The whole beginner course distilled into the steps you run before clicking buy. A ten-point pre-trade checklist covering thesis, levels, risk, sizing, and the exits that have to exist before you enter.
7 min read
Options Trading: a beginner's course16 chapters
Options from zero, in order: calls and puts, strikes and expirations, premium and the Greeks, implied volatility, and the core strategies from covered calls to spreads and iron condors. Sixteen chapters, evidence-first, no hype.
- 01
What is an option? Contracts that transfer risk, not lottery tickets - options trading, chapter 1
An option is a contract giving the buyer the right - not the obligation - to buy or sell 100 shares at a fixed strike before expiration. The mechanics, the two sides, and why options exist.
8 min read - 02
Calls and puts explained: the four basic option positions and their payoffs - options trading, chapter 2
Long call, long put, short call, short put - the four building blocks. Max gain, max loss, and breakeven for each, with numeric examples, and why buyers and sellers face opposite asymmetries.
9 min read - 03
Strike price and expiration: how to read an option chain - options trading, chapter 3
The strike is the fixed price you can transact at; expiration is when the contract dies. Weeklies vs monthlies vs LEAPS, American vs European exercise, cash vs share settlement, and the chain.
8 min read - 04
Option premium: intrinsic vs extrinsic value, and why OTM options decay to zero - options trading, chapter 4
The premium splits into intrinsic value (already in the money) and extrinsic time value (which decays to zero by expiration). Moneyness, a worked example, and what an option is worth at expiry.
8 min read - 05
How options are priced - the six inputs behind every premium - options trading, chapter 5
An option's price isn't one number you read off a screen - it's six inputs run through a model. What moves a premium, why time and volatility both add value, and why buying an option is a three-dimensional bet.
8 min read - 06
Implied volatility explained - why being right can still lose - options trading, chapter 6
IV is the market's forecast of movement, backed out of an option's price. What high vs low IV means, how IV rank works, and why IV crush makes you lose on a correct earnings call. The beginner's biggest trap.
8 min read - 07
The Greeks: delta and gamma - your option's directional exposure - options trading, chapter 7
Delta is how much your option moves per $1 in the stock - and doubles as a rough probability and a shares-equivalent. Gamma is how fast delta itself changes. The two Greeks that govern direction, with worked examples.
8 min read - 08
The Greeks: theta and vega - why direction isn't enough - options trading, chapter 8
Theta is the daily time decay you pay as a buyer and collect as a seller - and it accelerates near expiry. Vega is your exposure to IV swings, the engine behind IV crush. The two Greeks that beat correct directional calls.
8 min read - 09
Buying calls and puts - directional bets with capped downside - options trading, chapter 9
Long options are leveraged direction bets with risk limited to premium. Why most out-of-the-money calls and puts expire worthless, how breakeven works, and how to size by premium-at-risk.
8 min read - 10
Covered calls explained - selling premium for income, not protection - options trading, chapter 10
A covered call sells upside for income against shares you own. Why it caps gains, why it isn't a hedge, how assignment works, and when neutral-to-mildly-bullish makes it fit.
11 min read - 11
Cash-secured puts - getting paid to set a limit buy - options trading, chapter 11
A cash-secured put sells a put while holding cash to buy the shares if assigned. How it lowers your cost basis, the full downside risk it carries, and how it feeds the wheel.
8 min read - 12
Vertical spreads explained - defined risk, defined reward - options trading, chapter 12
A vertical spread buys one option and sells another of the same type and expiry. How debit and credit spreads cap both loss and gain, with worked max-profit and max-loss math.
9 min read - 13
Iron condors and strangles - defined-risk range trades - options trading, chapter 13
Strangles and iron condors are how you bet that a stock stays quiet. Why the iron condor caps your risk, when high IV makes it pay, and a full four-leg numeric example.
8 min read - 14
Straddles and earnings plays - why the move isn't enough - options trading, chapter 14
A long straddle bought before earnings often loses even when the stock gaps. The reason is IV crush. How the expected move is priced in, and why earnings is a volatility trade.
8 min read - 15
Assignment, exercise, and rolling - expiration mechanics - options trading, chapter 15
The boring plumbing that surprises beginners: auto-exercise thresholds, random assignment, early assignment before ex-dividend, pin risk, and how to roll a position.
8 min read - 16
Options risk management - the capstone checklist - options trading, chapter 16
The risks unique to options and the rules that contain them: premium-at-risk sizing, defined-risk structures, liquidity, and an eight-point pre-trade checklist.
9 min read
A History of Market Bubbles10 chapters
Ten bubbles, in order, from 1637 tulips to the AI supercycle. Each chapter is the evidence-first version, not the legend, and each one maps to the same four mechanics that keep repeating.
- 01
Tulip Mania (1637): the first bubble, and why the famous version is mostly myth
In 1637 a single Dutch tulip bulb could change hands for the price of an Amsterdam canal house, then the market fell roughly 99% in a week. What actually happened is more useful than the legend.
8 min read - 02
South Sea Bubble (1720): the trade-riches story was a cover for a debt swap
South Sea shares ran from about 128 pounds in January 1720 to roughly 1,000 by August, then crashed to 100-200 by December. The real business was never trade. It was converting the national debt.
9 min read - 03
Railway Mania (1845): the technology was real and the equity was still a bubble
In 1846 Parliament passed 272 railway acts and authorised capital near Britain's entire annual GDP. Most of those lines lost half their value or were never built. Real does not mean safe.
9 min read - 04
1929: the crash that gets blamed for the Depression it did not actually cause
The Dow ran from about 63 in 1921 to 381 in September 1929, then fell roughly 89% by 1932. The crash was real. The thing that turned it into a decade was the policy response, not the selloff.
9 min read - 05
Nifty Fifty (1972): the quality bubble, where the companies were great and the price was the mistake
In 1972 about fifty 'buy and never sell' growth stocks traded at 50 to 90x earnings, some above 100x. Then the 1973-74 bear market cut the S&P roughly 48% and many of them 60 to 90%. The companies were excellent. The price was the bubble.
9 min read - 06
Black Monday (1987): the worst day in Wall Street history that caused no depression
On 19 October 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day, the biggest one-day drop ever. No recession followed. The reason was code, and the response was a Fed that printed before lunch.
12 min read - 07
Dot-Com Bubble (2000): the internet was real, which is exactly why it was so dangerous
The Nasdaq ran from about 1,000 in 1996 to 5,048 in March 2000, then fell roughly 78% and erased about 5 trillion dollars. The trend was right. Picking the survivor was the hard part.
9 min read - 08
2008: the bubble was not housing, it was leverage hidden inside complexity
The S&P 500 fell about 57% from its 2007 peak and Lehman filed the largest bankruptcy in US history. The shiny asset was houses. The real bubble was leverage, repriced AAA, and one model assumption.
9 min read - 09
The Everything Bubble (2021): the bubble was not in the meme stocks, it was in the price of money
GameStop hit roughly $483, Bitcoin roughly $69,000, ARKK and SPACs fell 67% or more in 2022, and bonds had their worst year in modern history. The single asset everyone missed was the one priced at zero: interest rates.
9 min read - 10
The AI Supercycle: is it a bubble? Why railways and dot-com already answered
Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions a year on AI compute while the dominant chipmaker helps finance its own customers. The history of bubbles says real technology and a real bubble are not opposites.
9 min read
Foundations8
Standalone explainers on the methods behind the research: the concepts you need before the charts make sense.
What is short selling? Borrowing shares, unlimited risk, and short squeezes
Short selling means borrowing shares, selling them, and buying them back lower. The risk profile is inverted - gains cap at 100%, losses run unbounded - plus borrow fees and squeezes.
8 min readWhat is a moving average? SMA vs EMA, crossovers, and what they actually tell you
A moving average smooths price by averaging the last N closes, recalculated each bar. SMA vs EMA, the 20/50/200-day lengths, golden and death crosses, and why MAs lag instead of predict.
8 min readHow to read an options chain - the columns that matter and the ones that trap you
An options chain looks like a wall of numbers; it's a structured table. What each column means (bid/ask, volume, open interest, IV, the Greeks), how to spot illiquid strikes, and how to pick an expiration and strike.
8 min readHow to read an earnings report - results vs expectations, guidance, and the call
A stock reacts to earnings versus what was priced in, not to the raw numbers. How to read revenue/EPS against estimates, why guidance moves the stock more than the quarter, and why good prints still drop.
8 min readDollar-cost averaging vs lump sum: the math, the psychology, and when each wins
DCA spreads a fixed dollar amount over time; lump sum invests it all at once. The honest math says lump sum wins on average - but DCA wins where it counts: risk, regret, and the way real income actually arrives.
8 min readWhat is walk-forward validation? 104 strategy-ticker pairs tested - only 54% survived
Walk-forward validation separates in-sample fluke from real edge. 104 (strategy, ticker) pairs tested on the QA universe - 56 ROBUST, 20 STABLE, 18 LUMPY, 10 no-trades. Here's the procedure, the verdicts, and why most retail backtests quietly fail it.
8 min readWhat is mean reversion? Three flavors backtested - and only one wins consistently
Mean reversion is a class, not a strategy. We walk-forwarded three implementations across 35 thematic names: regression-channel wins 22 of 35, Fibonacci basket wins at PF 1.76, flat-mean Bollinger wins 1 of 35. The structural reason is which mean you assume.
8 min readWhat is Fibonacci retracement? A quant's 3-year backtest on 48 live levels
Textbook Fibonacci is 23.6 / 38.2 / 50 / 61.8 / 78.6%. We backtested 48 user-curated levels across 12 themes - basket PF 1.76, Sharpe 1.42, +23.7% over 3 years. Here's what works, what doesn't, and on which name classes.
8 min read
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