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COP
USEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Each weekday: the watchlist of pullbacks inside uptrends, every new ticker teardown, and the bubble shifts that move names like this one. Free. Education, not advice.
Free when you join: the $HOOD Teardown Dossier (Robinhood Markets), the full desk file we sell in the shop. One per new reader.
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Structural: largest pure-play US independent E&P (~$145B mcap, ~1.95 mmboe/d post-Marathon Oil). No refining, no retail - clean upstream proxy. Cost of supply <$40/bbl WTI across a decade of Lower 48 inventory; Alaska Willow first oil 2029.
LNG offtake: 5 mtpa from APLNG (Australia) + 5 mtpa from Port Arthur LNG ($SRE) + 2.2 mtpa Qatar = exposure to AI-datacenter-driven US gas demand and trans-Pacific LNG arb.
(1) Marathon synergies tracking ahead of $500m run-rate target; (2) variable dividend mechanism returns >30% FCF to shareholders at $70 WTI; (3) LNG portfolio comes online 2026-2028 just as $NVDA / hyperscaler power demand inflects US gas; (4) Willow ($8B Alaska project) re-derisked post-2024 court ruling; (5) lowest leverage in independent peer group (<0.5x ND/EBITDA).
(1) oil-price taker - every $10/bbl WTI move is ~$3-4B FCF swing; (2) Permian inventory depth shorter than $XOM / $CVX integrated peers, M&A treadmill required; (3) variable dividend cuts in $50s WTI signal to retail; (4) Alaska / Willow environmental litigation reopens with administration changes; (5) global gas glut 2027-2028 if every announced LNG project FIDs on schedule.
It reads our $COP data (thesis, key levels, peers, a year of prices) and any chart screenshot you paste, then explains the setup in plain English. Free with an email login, 5 questions a day. Education only: it never tells you to buy or sell, and it can be wrong, so check the numbers.
High-signal only
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.