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USUtilities · Multi-Utilities
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Structural: Dominion's Virginia service territory hosts ~25% of global hyperscale data center capacity. PJM Dominion Zone load forecast has been revised up multiple times - the cleanest regulated-utility proxy for AI power demand. Rate base growth visible through 2029 at ~9% CAGR driven by CVOW (2.6 GW offshore wind, ~$10.7B project cost in approved cost recovery) + transmission build-out for data center loads.
Cove Point LNG provides contracted cash flow leg ($SHEL, $TYO:9501 Tokyo Gas, ST&E as long-term offtakers).
(1) Virginia data center pipeline >40 GW of requests; rate-base inflection coming. (2) CVOW de-risked via rider recovery + Stonepeak 50% non-controlling interest. (3) Dividend reset (cut 2024) cleaned up payout ratio; ~5% yield now covered.
(4) Cove Point capacity sold out through 2030s. (5) Regulated utility = bond proxy bid when long rates fall.
(1) CVOW capex inflation risk - offshore wind sector ($ORSTED.CO, $BEP) has shown serial overruns. (2) Virginia SCC rate case scrutiny on data-center cost allocation (who pays for transmission?). (3) Interest-rate sensitivity - utility multiples compress when 10y rises.
(4) Balance sheet still elevated post-Questar divestiture cycle; FFO/debt thin. (5) Cove Point LNG single-asset concentration risk; FERC re-licensing in 2030s.
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Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.