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Palantir Technologies Inc.
Information Technology · Software
Structural: Palantir is the only listed pure-play on the "ontology layer" thesis - wiring siloed data into a single decision graph that DoD/intel and Fortune 500 ops can run agents on top of. AIP (the agentic layer launched 2023) flipped Foundry from a long-sales-cycle services drag into a bootcamp-led land-and-expand motion.
Government remains the anchor; US Commercial is the growth leg.
- US Commercial revenue grew 54% YoY in Q4 2025 with 73% sequential customer count growth from AIP bootcamps
- $5.4B total contract value backlog (Q4 2025), >50% from government renewals - visibility moat
- DoD Maven Smart System contract expanded to $480M (May 2025), positions PLTR as the agentic-AI integrator for Army/SOCOM/CENTCOM
- Rule-of-40 score >65 (revenue growth + FCF margin) - rare combo at this scale
- Net dollar retention 118% (Q4 2025), commercial customers expanding inside the platform
- Trades at ~75x forward sales / ~200x forward earnings - priced for flawless execution
- US Government is still ~55% of revenue; budget-cycle and procurement-shift risk is non-trivial
- Stock-based compensation runs 20%+ of revenue; dilution drags per-share economics
- AIP bootcamp → paid conversion rate is the unverified leg of the bull case
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- Insider selling: $1B+ from Karp/Cohen/Sankar in the last 12 months
- Quantum-AI rotation could pull narrative capital toward $IONQ / $RGTI / $QBTS
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