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Roku, Inc.
Communication Services · Interactive Media & Services
Structural: ~90M Streaming Households, #1 US smart-TV OS share, ~30B hours streamed annually. Platform revenue ~85%+ of mix, Devices is a customer-acquisition cost line. The Roku Channel is now a top-5 streaming app by reach - owned-and-operated ad inventory the company captures 100% of vs ~20% rev-share on third-party apps.
Bull case:
- CTV ad budgets still mid-shift from linear TV ($60B+ US linear pool migrating)
- Owned-and-operated Roku Channel scaling faster than platform avg, lifting ad take-rate
- International (Mexico, UK, Germany, Brazil) still <15% of accounts - long runway
- Programmatic Roku Exchange + $DSP partnerships (The Trade Desk OpenPath, $AMZN DSP integration) deepening monetization
- Operating leverage: gross profit growing 2-3× faster than headcount post-2025 cuts
Bear case:
- Walmart-$VZIO close (Dec 2024) created a vertically integrated #2 OS with retail distribution Roku can't match
- $GOOGL TV (Google TV) and $AMZN Fire TV pushing OS share via OEM subsidies
- ARPU growth decelerating; ad pricing pressure from $NFLX/$DIS ad tiers absorbing CTV budgets directly
- Smart TV is now a commodity - Roku TV partners (TCL, Hisense) can re-platform to Google TV at contract renewal
- No subscription moat: switching cost for households near zero
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