TMC

## TMC - The Metals Company

Structural context: Battery-critical metals (cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper) face a structural supply deficit as EV adoption and grid storage scale. Land-based deposits carry high geopolitical risk ($VALE in Brazil, cobalt in DRC) and rising ESG liability.

TMC holds ISA exploration licenses over one of the largest known nodule fields; if commercial harvesting is permitted, the resource could underpin decades of supply for cathode manufacturers.

Bull case:

1. Nodule grades are anomalously high vs. terrestrial laterite ore; lower processing intensity per tonne of battery metal is structurally credible.

2. ISA regulatory pathway advanced materially in 2024-2025 - draft exploitation regulations published; TMC is the best-positioned applicant with the longest license tenure.

3. Partnership with Allseas (subsea contractor) de-risks the collection technology; pilot collector tests on the NORI-D area completed 2022.

4. No overburden removal, no acid mine drainage, no tropical deforestation - ESG profile is differentiated vs. DRC cobalt, a growing procurement concern for OEMs.

5. If ISA grants a first commercial license, TMC is likely the sole near-term beneficiary; optionality is not priced into a sub-$4B market cap for a resource of this scale.

Bear case:

1. ISA commercial exploitation regulations are still unfinalized; a moratorium faction (France, Germany, Chile) could delay or block approval indefinitely - binary regulatory risk.

2. Deep-sea mining has zero commercial precedent; capex, opex, and equipment reliability at scale are unproven.