Micron (MU) Q4: $54.2B revenue, a $61.5B guide, and $12.7B of customer deposits

$MU printed $54.23B of revenue and $33.42 of non-GAAP EPS for its fiscal fourth quarter, against a consensus near $51.07B and $31.61, and above the top of its own $50B ± $1B guide by $3.2B. The DRAM / HBM Memory thesis did more than hold: customers paid Micron $12.7B of deposits during the year for supply they have not yet received, which is the strategic customer agreements showing up in cash. This recap walks the print, the balance-sheet line most readers will skip, the peer read, and the one level the tape still has to clear.

The print

$MU reported fiscal Q4 2026 (the quarter ended September 3, 2026) after the close on September 30, in an 8-K with the press release as exhibit 99.1. Consensus figures below are the ones reported by CNBC on the night.

Sequentially, revenue grew 31% from $41.46B in FQ3. Every business unit grew:

• Core Data Center: $18.00B, from $11.52B in FQ3, at a 90% gross margin.
• Cloud Memory: $16.28B, from $13.77B, at 83%.
• Mobile and Client: $13.11B, from $11.52B, at 90%.
• Automotive and Embedded: $6.82B, from $4.63B, at 84%.

Full fiscal year 2026: revenue of $133.19B versus $37.38B in FY25, non-GAAP EPS of $75.52 (GAAP $74.33), operating cash flow of $89.68B, net capital expenditure of $27.37B, and adjusted free cash flow of $62.31B.

Guidance for FQ1-27, as written in the release:

Consensus for the quarter sat near $57B and $35.40, so the guide cleared the Street by roughly $4.5B of revenue at the midpoint. The one soft line is gross margin: 86.25% guided versus the 87.0% just printed, the first quarter in this cycle where the guided margin sits below the reported one.

DRAM / HBM Memory read-through

The standing QA thesis on /stocks/mu asks one question: are the 16 strategic customer agreements a structural floor under what used to be spot-cycle revenue, or a late-cycle story that 2027-2028 capacity will unwind? This print adds the best evidence yet for the first reading, and it sits on the balance sheet, not the income statement.

• Customer deposits: $12.75B received in FY26 under the agreements ("proceeds from customer contract liability deposits" in the cash flow statement), against zero the year before.
• Noncurrent customer contract liabilities: $12.90B on September 3, from $568M on May 28.

A customer pays up front for memory it will take delivery of later only when it fears not getting it. That is a different behavior from a spot buyer in a commodity cycle, and it is the concrete mechanism behind the "structural" side of the DRAM / HBM Memory debate.

The balance sheet also carries the counterweight. Receivables reached $36.20B, two thirds of a quarter's revenue and up about $27B in a year. And capital intensity is climbing across the industry: Micron's own FY26 net capex was $27.37B. The cyclical read on memory has never been about demand at the top; it is about supply two years later. For the full framework, see Memory cyclicality: the supercycle that still has a cycle.

Net read: the print confirms the thesis on demand, pricing and customer commitment. It does not settle the supply question, and the market is pricing exactly that gap.

Peer reaction

$MU's closest correlated names in the QA universe are $SNDK (0.78 over 252 days), $LRCX (0.76), $AMAT (0.72) and $WDC (0.72). The print landed after the close, so the regular-session reaction across the group is not yet established; the extended-hours read on $MU itself was little changed.

The peer read splits by axis:

• SNDK and WDC read through on pricing. An 87% gross margin at Micron and a guide that keeps stepping up say memory and storage pricing is still firm at the end of September.
• LRCX and AMAT read through on the supply side. Every dollar of rising memory capex is revenue for the equipment makers, and it is also the mechanism the bear case on memory runs through. The equipment names benefit from exactly what the memory names fear.

What worked

• Revenue of $54.23B beat the top of Micron's own range by $3.2B, the second consecutive quarter above the high end.
• Core Data Center added $6.5B sequentially at a 90% gross margin. That is the AI server memory demand the thesis is built on, in one line.
• $33.2B of adjusted free cash flow in a single quarter, and $73.48B of cash, marketable investments and restricted cash against about $5.2B of debt.
• $12.75B of customer deposits under the strategic customer agreements: the first hard, dated evidence of customers paying ahead for supply.
• The FQ1-27 guide of $61.5B is another step of about 13% from a record base.

What broke

• Guided margin below printed margin. 86.25% guided against 87.0% delivered is small, but it is the first sign in this cycle that pricing gains may be leveling off.
• Receivables. $36.20B, up about $27B in a year, roughly two thirds of a quarter's sales. Worth watching for collection timing on the next print.
• Capex. Industry-wide spending at these margins is how memory cycles have ended before. Micron's $27.37B of FY26 net capex is part of that supply response.
• Competition. The QA thesis already flags two outside risks: Korean media reports putting SK Hynix near 70% of HBM4 on NVIDIA's next platform, and China's CXMT entering the market. Neither is addressed by this print.
• The tape. The stock closed September 30 at $1,069.44, 12% under its June 25 closing high of $1,213.56, after a 39% drawdown into July 29. After another beat and raise, it has not made a new high. That is the market pricing a peak.

What to watch

• Next earnings. Fiscal Q1 2027, expected in December based on Micron's usual cadence (not yet confirmed). The setup: $61.5B ± $1.5B revenue, about 86.25% gross margin, $38.15 ± $1.00 EPS.
• The customer contract liability line. If noncurrent customer contract liabilities keep rising from $12.90B, the structural reading strengthens. A reversal would be the first dated sign of customers stepping back.
• The June high. A close above the $1,213.56 June 25 closing high would say the market is starting to accept the new earnings base. A close back under the 50-day average, near $952 on September 30, would say it still sees a peak.
• December 9, 2026. The CHIPS-agreement anniversary after which Micron has said it intends to return excess cash to shareholders over time.
• HBM4 share on NVIDIA's next platform. The single competitive data point the thesis is most exposed to.

The teardown video on this print, the level map and the peer table live on /stocks/mu. The desk's full read in one document is the Micron Teardown Dossier, included in Pro.

To trade $MU or its memory peers from a US-retail or LLC account, see /stack/ibkr. Bubble shifts and rule-based alerts on the memory cohort are part of /pro.

Educational research on structural market dynamics. Not investment advice. QuantAbundance positions may change without notice.