Ondas Q3 2026: revenue $167.5M, backlog $835M, 2026 target lifted to at least $550M, 2027 set at $1.1B

$ONDS reported record third-quarter revenue of $167.5M, up 100% from the June quarter and more than sixteen times the $10.1M of a year ago. New orders reached $214M and the backlog rose 36% in a quarter to $835M. The company lifted its 2026 revenue target to at least $550M and gave a first 2027 target of at least $1.1B, while gross margin fell to 21.8% and the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $59.7M. This recap walks the print, the outlook and the balance sheet against our /stocks/onds thesis.

The print

What moved the numbers:

• Acquisitions and organic growth. The company closed six acquisitions, DZYNE Technologies (its largest to date) among them. On a pro forma basis, as if the current businesses had been owned a year ago, revenue grew 64%.
• Margins. The company ties the drop to amortization of capitalized intellectual property, the step-up of acquired inventory, and early inefficiencies on large programs, mostly in precision strike. It expects similar gross margins in Q4.
• Below the operating line. A $125.1M non-cash gain on warrants issued in the October 2025 and January 2026 raises cut the operating loss of $189.5M to a net loss of $64.7M. These warrants are remeasured every quarter, so this line can swing either way.

The order book

• Bookings. $214M of new orders in the quarter, including $100M at Ondas Sentinel, its US defense platform, anchored by $53.7M of ULTRA follow-on orders and $21.7M of IonStrike orders.
• Backlog. $835M at September 30, from $613M at June 30, per our /stocks/onds data.
• Programs. Continued shipments under the $982M Lethal Unmanned Strike IDIQ with the U.S. Army, and volume deliveries expected to start in Q4 on the $140M combat engineering vehicles program.
• New units. Regna AI, a sovereign AI company owned by Ondas, and a Land Systems segment for its ground robots.

The outlook

With $301.4M of revenue booked in nine months, the new floor implies at least about $249M in the fourth quarter (our arithmetic), in line with the "more than $250M" target. These are targets, not results.

The cash

• Liquidity. About $820M of cash, restricted cash and short-term investments at September 30, against $616M at the start of the year (our arithmetic from the balance sheet).
• Dilution. 590.2M shares outstanding at September 30 against 380.8M at December 31, as acquisitions were paid largely in stock.
• The warrant liability. $918.6M on the balance sheet, up from $489.4M in December: the item behind the large non-cash swings in the result.
• The balance sheet's shape. Goodwill of $1.50B and intangibles of $1.03B out of $4.03B of total assets.

The read across drones and defense

The standing QA thesis on /stocks/onds is a defense autonomy roll-up, paid for with stock: real revenue now, a fast-growing order book, and a full-stack pitch from sensing to counter-drone to strike and ground robots. This print confirms the revenue and order side and keeps the question on margins and dilution open.

Its closest correlated names in the QA universe over 252 days are $RCAT (0.74), $UMAC (0.71) and $BBAI (0.65). More names sit in the drones theme.

What worked

• Revenue of $167.5M, above the company's own $140M to $155M guidance.
• $214M of new orders and a backlog of $835M, up 36% in a quarter.
• A higher 2026 floor and a first 2027 target of at least $1.1B.
• Whole-company adjusted EBITDA breakeven pulled forward by one quarter, to Q3 2027.

What broke

• Gross margin at 21.8%, half of Q2's 43.1%, with similar levels expected in Q4.
• The adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $59.7M from $46.2M.
• Operating expenses of $226.0M, including $57.8M of stock-based compensation and $14.1M of acquisition costs.
• The tape. A $5.32 close on November 12, down 16% over a month and 41% over three months in the data QA tracks.

This recap is education, not investment advice.