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The bond market awoke from its early autumn slumber this week amid a maelstrom of headlines tied to growth, inflation, and fiscal concerns that dragged Treasury yields to the highest levels in decades and stoked bets on a series of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The broader fixed income slump, which was extending into Thursday’s trading session on Wall Street, was largely powered by the renewed surge in global crude prices. “This is ‘hit the wall stuff’ if we continue anything resembling the current pace,” said John Hardy, Saxo’s global head of macro strategy.

Over the past week or so, the 10-year Treasury yield has inched upward to nearly 5%, a critical psychological threshold for investors around the world. Other explanations are more concerning: heavy Treasury issuance to finance federal budget shortfalls, persistent above-target inflation, and mounting uncertainties about future monetary policy. Finally, and most worrisome of all, is the possibility that political paralysis will stymie any correction of fiscal deficits and ultimately engender soaring bond yields, a financial crisis, or even a federal default.

Intel options volume hit nearly 3 times its monthly average Thursday as tech stocks rebounded from the Fed's first rate increase since 2023

The most widely followed gauge of market fear and uncertainty was sliding on Wednesday, suggesting investors were feeling a little calmer ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, slipped 0.

The key “affordability” rate briefly touched its highest level since 2007 on Monday.

With oil prices pushing up to $104.50 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict turns regional and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.99%, two trip wires for the S&P 500 are flashing red. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, known as the S&P 500 fear gauge, has climbed to 17.8, but remains well below the 20 level that signals a loss of composure. Things have gotten so bad in the Middle East that a window may be opening for improvement, according to Marko Papic, chief investment strategist at BCA Research.

U.S. stock investors should look to the other side of the world for guidance next week.

The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.3%. It comes down to the “usual suspects,” notes Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab: oil, Treasuries, and tariffs. Reports that Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Arabian oil facilities caused oil prices to spike today.

Stocks might soon need to adapt to the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023.

The market is pricing in a rate increase as the most likely outcome at the central bank's upcoming meeting, according to CME Fed Watch. Odds the Fed will announce an increase in rates on Sept. 16 ticked lower to 64% from 66% on Wednesday, though were still significantly higher than they were just last week. The slight pullback came after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the recent rise in Treasury yields reflected a strong economy and signaled a wait-and-see approach to September's meeting.

Consider what is perhaps the most commonly cited rationale: The inflationary impact of federal government debt, which earlier this month eclipsed the $40 trillion mark. After all, as Wes Crill, a vice president at Dimensional Fund Advisors, points out, debt level concerns have been around for a while. The inflation threat that many bond investors face is from unexpected inflation—which, by definition, is unexpected.

The temperature of the market was rising ahead of the open Wedensday on what could be a key day on Wall Street. The Cboe Volatility Index, or Vix, also known as the market's fear gauge, was up 1.8% ahead of inflation data and Nvidia earnings.

The most widely followed gauge of market fear and uncertainty was rising on Tuesday as investors fretted about a flare-up in oil prices that could drive inflation higher and strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.

U.S. stocks could be heading toward a tricky patch over the next two months, with midterm elections in focus, longer-dated Treasury bond yields trading at multiyear highs, and volatility readings suppressed. The equal weighted index of the is now up more than 17% for the year, volatility gauges are trading at the lowest levels since early January, and data suggest fading bets on an autumn Federal Reserve rate hike.

Wall Street’s benchmark reading of investor concern, often referred to as the “fear index,” is trading near the lowest levels of the year this week as a surprising summer rally has stocks hitting all-time highs. The Cboe Volatility Index, or designed as a real-time estimate of the expected daily moves for the based on equity options trading, was trading around 14.56 on Friday. At current levels, the VIX is suggesting daily swings of just 67 points for the S&P 500, in either direction, over the next 30 days, a muted level of movement in a market beset with concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes, government debt and deficit figures, AI spending and investments, and the U.S. war with Iran.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reassured markets about a resilient economy, but geopolitical uncertainty remains the major factor for most interested parties right now.

Investors were feeling a bit calmer on Monday after a lull in fighting in the Middle East over the weekend sparked a drop in oil prices, easing worries about higher inflation. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, slid by 1 point to 17.

Market pulses were elevated on Tuesday as Wall Street contended with surging oil prices amid renewed fighting in the Middle East and braced for key economic indicators from the Consumer Price Index and the Fed, and earnings from America's big banks. The Cboe Volatility Index, or Vix, rose 1% to 17.32. The widely watched gauge takes the temperature of Wall Street and any reading above 20 tends to indicate increased market volatility.

Micron's earnings report gave the Nasdaq the jumpstart it desperately needed on Thursday. The Nasdaq was up 0.9%. Micron not only reported blowout results but also gave a forecast that had Wall Street ready to pile back into the chip sector after a brief road bump.

Stocks clawed back losses by the end of the week, putting the S&P 500 on track for a positive week as a U.S.–Iran deal moved within reach.

Markets were feeling on edge Thursday as a tech selloff, inflation fears, and the continuing stalemate between the U.S. and Iran weighed on sentiment. The Cboe Volatility Index, a widely followed fear gauge that tracks S&P 500 options contracts and trades under the ticker VIX, climbed 0.3 points to 18.1 in early trading. Yields on U.S. treasuries were also slipping early Tuesday as traders weigh up central banks’ response to renewed inflation fears.

Fears of a 2022-style inflation problem are bubbling back up, but there’s also hope for a Trump pivot on the Iran conflict.

ETF flows in March 2026 were highlighted by a massive flight to the short end of the yield curve. Investors sought refuge in short-term bonds to escape the downpour of geopolitical volatility mixed in with a thick fog of stubborn inflation. It’s a perfect environment to consider the Fidelity Limited Term Bond ETF (FLTB). One [...]

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is in a whipsaw trajectory, trading between 17.32 and 18.73 in today’s session alone, a range of 8.2% in this uncertain market climate. The move lands amid a dense macro week: blowout earnings from four mega-caps, a $725 billion AI capex revelation, Q1 GDP of 2.0%, and a Fed rate hold ... VIX in Whipsaw on Sticky Inflation, Fed Dissent and Lofty AI Capex

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is hovering near 18 on Wednesday morning, up roughly 1% as traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve’s afternoon policy decision and mega-cap technology earnings. The fear gauge closed at 17.83 on Tuesday, sitting inside the historically normal 15 to 20 band but well off the 31.05 peak hit on ... VIX Climbs as Fed Decision and Mega-Cap Earnings Keep Investors on Edge

The most widely followed gauge of market fear and uncertainty was pretty much unchanged on Wednesday, suggesting Wall Street was feeling relatively calm ahead of looming Big Tech earnings and the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Wall Street is getting ready for one crazy Wednesday: A Federal Reserve meeting, a Senate committee vote on a new Fed chairman, and earnings reports from four Mag Seven companies after the closing bell. The Cboe Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, has tumbled from above 30 in late March to a more reasonable level of 18. Adding to the stakes: Never before have powerhouses Alphabet Microsoft Amazon and Meta Platforms all posted earnings on the same day.