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A key measure of bond volatility surged this week to its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. The ICE BofA U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index, or MOVE index, is designed to track U.S. bond market volatility via prices on a basket of options. On Thursday, it has backtracked only slightly, now sitting at around 93, according to Intercontinental Exchange data.

The bond market awoke from its early autumn slumber this week amid a maelstrom of headlines tied to growth, inflation, and fiscal concerns that dragged Treasury yields to the highest levels in decades and stoked bets on a series of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The broader fixed income slump, which was extending into Thursday’s trading session on Wall Street, was largely powered by the renewed surge in global crude prices. “This is ‘hit the wall stuff’ if we continue anything resembling the current pace,” said John Hardy, Saxo’s global head of macro strategy.

Over the past week or so, the 10-year Treasury yield has inched upward to nearly 5%, a critical psychological threshold for investors around the world. Other explanations are more concerning: heavy Treasury issuance to finance federal budget shortfalls, persistent above-target inflation, and mounting uncertainties about future monetary policy. Finally, and most worrisome of all, is the possibility that political paralysis will stymie any correction of fiscal deficits and ultimately engender soaring bond yields, a financial crisis, or even a federal default.

Investors are well aware of the risks, but they have simply decided none are significant enough to force them out of the market.

Intel options volume hit nearly 3 times its monthly average Thursday as tech stocks rebounded from the Fed's first rate increase since 2023

The most widely followed gauge of market fear and uncertainty was sliding on Wednesday, suggesting investors were feeling a little calmer ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, slipped 0.

The latest cracks in the AI trade are emerging at a particularly troubling time for investors.

The key “affordability” rate briefly touched its highest level since 2007 on Monday.

With oil prices pushing up to $104.50 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict turns regional and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.99%, two trip wires for the S&P 500 are flashing red. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, known as the S&P 500 fear gauge, has climbed to 17.8, but remains well below the 20 level that signals a loss of composure. Things have gotten so bad in the Middle East that a window may be opening for improvement, according to Marko Papic, chief investment strategist at BCA Research.

U.S. stock investors should look to the other side of the world for guidance next week.

The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.3%. It comes down to the “usual suspects,” notes Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab: oil, Treasuries, and tariffs. Reports that Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Arabian oil facilities caused oil prices to spike today.

Stocks might soon need to adapt to the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023.

The market is pricing in a rate increase as the most likely outcome at the central bank's upcoming meeting, according to CME Fed Watch. Odds the Fed will announce an increase in rates on Sept. 16 ticked lower to 64% from 66% on Wednesday, though were still significantly higher than they were just last week. The slight pullback came after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the recent rise in Treasury yields reflected a strong economy and signaled a wait-and-see approach to September's meeting.

Consider what is perhaps the most commonly cited rationale: The inflationary impact of federal government debt, which earlier this month eclipsed the $40 trillion mark. After all, as Wes Crill, a vice president at Dimensional Fund Advisors, points out, debt level concerns have been around for a while. The inflation threat that many bond investors face is from unexpected inflation—which, by definition, is unexpected.

The temperature of the market was rising ahead of the open Wedensday on what could be a key day on Wall Street. The Cboe Volatility Index, or Vix, also known as the market's fear gauge, was up 1.8% ahead of inflation data and Nvidia earnings.

Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ is signaling the all-clear, despite myriad looming risks.

The most widely followed gauge of market fear and uncertainty was rising on Tuesday as investors fretted about a flare-up in oil prices that could drive inflation higher and strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.

U.S. stocks could be heading toward a tricky patch over the next two months, with midterm elections in focus, longer-dated Treasury bond yields trading at multiyear highs, and volatility readings suppressed. The equal weighted index of the is now up more than 17% for the year, volatility gauges are trading at the lowest levels since early January, and data suggest fading bets on an autumn Federal Reserve rate hike.

Wall Street’s benchmark reading of investor concern, often referred to as the “fear index,” is trading near the lowest levels of the year this week as a surprising summer rally has stocks hitting all-time highs. The Cboe Volatility Index, or designed as a real-time estimate of the expected daily moves for the based on equity options trading, was trading around 14.56 on Friday. At current levels, the VIX is suggesting daily swings of just 67 points for the S&P 500, in either direction, over the next 30 days, a muted level of movement in a market beset with concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes, government debt and deficit figures, AI spending and investments, and the U.S. war with Iran.

Your own evolving goals might point the way to a different type of exchange-traded fund.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reassured markets about a resilient economy, but geopolitical uncertainty remains the major factor for most interested parties right now.

Investors were feeling a bit calmer on Monday after a lull in fighting in the Middle East over the weekend sparked a drop in oil prices, easing worries about higher inflation. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, slid by 1 point to 17.

The S 500 has been treading water for more than a month now, but beneath the surface of the U.S. equity market, big changes are taking shape.

Market pulses were elevated on Tuesday as Wall Street contended with surging oil prices amid renewed fighting in the Middle East and braced for key economic indicators from the Consumer Price Index and the Fed, and earnings from America's big banks. The Cboe Volatility Index, or Vix, rose 1% to 17.32. The widely watched gauge takes the temperature of Wall Street and any reading above 20 tends to indicate increased market volatility.

A violent rotation is taking place under the hood of the stock market ahead of second-quarter earnings.

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While it’s still delivered a 164% return so far in 2026, the Korean stock market has shown signs of fatigue in recent months

Micron's earnings report gave the Nasdaq the jumpstart it desperately needed on Thursday. The Nasdaq was up 0.9%. Micron not only reported blowout results but also gave a forecast that had Wall Street ready to pile back into the chip sector after a brief road bump.

After weeks of large-scale alarms that turned out to be false starts, equities finally found a real problem — the one they spent two years celebrating.

Stocks clawed back losses by the end of the week, putting the S&P 500 on track for a positive week as a U.S.–Iran deal moved within reach.