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What happens when seasonality, inflation, crude oil, and interest rates all begin pointing toward the same trade? The euro is approaching a 75-day seasonal sell window—and the fundamental backdrop may be lining up with it. Is the next bearish opportunity taking shape?
Kevin Warsh‘s hawkish debut as Federal Reserve Chair revived one of the market’s most reliable plays — going long the dollar when the central bank looks ready to hike interest rates. The U.S. Dollar Index – as tracked by the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund – rose 0.8% to above 100.15 on Thursday, its highest level since May 2025 and the cap on a roughly 13-month climb. The move followed a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that broke sharply with March. Nine of the 19 participants p
The US dollar is at the center of today's Fed decision. Powell doesn't have to move rates to move markets.
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