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📊 Hot Bond Yield Summer
The Wall Street Journal28d agoneutral
📊 Hot Bond Yield Summer

Think Treasurys are having a rough summer? It's even uglier abroad. Countries with large debt burdens—France, Italy, the U.K., Japan—have come under the heaviest pressure in recent months. The forces fueling the overseas rout include renewed inflation fears, fiscal woes in France, pressure on the Japanese yen and budget worries in the U.

Bond Yields and Retail Earnings Send Market Reeling
Barrons.com35d agoneutral
Bond Yields and Retail Earnings Send Market Reeling

A broad stock market slide followed a snap-back in yields. So much for that bond market rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 698 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1%.

Bessent Signals Treasury Has ‘Big Toolkit’ to Bring Down Yields
The Wall Street Journal35d agoneutral
Bessent Signals Treasury Has ‘Big Toolkit’ to Bring Down Yields

Treasury yields are choppy after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that upcoming buybacks of longer-term bonds could be more than $4 billion per operation. Appearing on CNBC a day after the Treasury announced that it would increase buybacks of longer-term bonds, Bessent said the government has “a big toolkit” to bring down yields, which he said don’t currently reflect economic fundamentals. Treasury yields initially fell after Bessent started speaking but then retracted that move.

Q: Will Bessent’s Intervention Work?
The Wall Street Journal35d agoneutral
Q: Will Bessent’s Intervention Work?

A: Analysts say that buying back more government bonds could mute the march higher in longer-term yields. At Dutch bank ING, Padhraic Garvey says "the Treasury could double the long tenor buyback sizes again, and again if needed". At Japanese bank MUFG, analysts say "the US Treasury could play a key role here by of course addressing the ever-expending fiscal deficit...We all know that’s not going to happen."

Bond Yields Drop After Treasury Says It Will Increase Buybacks
The Wall Street Journal36d agoneutral
Bond Yields Drop After Treasury Says It Will Increase Buybacks

Treasury yields are down sharply after the Treasury Department said it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for longer-term notes and bonds. Treasury's buyback operations are meant to improve liquidity in the bond market by reducing the amount of older securities. Treasury's website states that the agency "does not currently intend to use buyback operations to mitigate episodes of acute market stress."

Rising Oil Prices Pressure Bond Market Again
The Wall Street Journal44d agoneutral
Rising Oil Prices Pressure Bond Market Again

Higher energy prices are reigniting inflation concerns, pushing global government bond yields upward. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.729% this morning, according to Tradeweb, within striking of its year-to-date closing peak of 4.

Treasury Yields Rise as Wall Street Expects Stable Inflation Data
Barrons.com45d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Rise as Wall Street Expects Stable Inflation Data

Treasury yields rise ahead of U.S. inflation data due later this week and following July's unexpected negative payroll numbers. Iran makes tough demands to reopen Hormuz, pushing oil futures up 1.5%. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect July's 12-month CPI inflation to cool slightly to 3.

Traders Scale Back Bets on Rate Hike
The Wall Street Journal48d agoneutral
Traders Scale Back Bets on Rate Hike

Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report has flipped the market-based odds of whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rate in September. Interest-rate futures now show a 56% chance that the Fed stays on hold at its next meeting and a 44% chance of a rate hike, according to CME Group data.

Fed’s Kashkari: It’s Time to ‘Start Slowly Moving’ Rates Higher
The Wall Street Journal50d agoneutral
Fed’s Kashkari: It’s Time to ‘Start Slowly Moving’ Rates Higher

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he believes it is time to “start slowly moving” interest rates higher to help bring down inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. During an interview on CNBC, the central bank official said he isn’t calling for a dramatic increase in rates, adding: “I don’t see evidence monetary policy is marginally restrictive right now, and I think we have more work to do to get inflation back down.

Bond Yields Hold Declines After Treasury Maintains Borrowing Guidance
The Wall Street Journal50d agoneutral
Bond Yields Hold Declines After Treasury Maintains Borrowing Guidance

Treasury yields held earlier overnight declines after the Treasury Department signaled–again–that it has no plans to increase the sizes of note-and-bond auctions for “at least the next several quarters.” The Treasury’s guidance, made as part of its quarterly refunding announcement, was the same that it has made for the past 11 quarters dating back to the start of 2024.

To Understand Why the U.S. Helped Prop Up the Yen, Look at This Chart
The Wall Street Journal51d agoneutral
To Understand Why the U.S. Helped Prop Up the Yen, Look at This Chart

For the U.S., a weak yen is a potential problem because Japan is the world’s biggest single holder of U.S. Treasurys. With bond yields already high, the last thing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants is more upward pressure from Japan selling down its U.

Stock Futures Unfazed by Cooler Inflation and Slow Economic Growth
Barrons.com56d agoneutral
Stock Futures Unfazed by Cooler Inflation and Slow Economic Growth

The market got a fresh batch of economic data, with new personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product data released ahead of the opening bell. Inflation data came in cooler than expected. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy costs and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.1% from the month prior, below consensus estimates of 0.2% and the 0.3% increase seen in May. Headline PCE was roughly in line with expectations.

Treasury Yields Climb Further After Fed Signals Reluctance to Raise Rates
The Wall Street Journal56d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Climb Further After Fed Signals Reluctance to Raise Rates

Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasurys rose further to hit 5.24%, a 19-year high, before paring gains slightly, in a sign of investors' worries about rising inflation and the Fed’s willingness to combat it. The Fed's statement yesterday delivered “a hawkish hold,” wrote economists at Barclays. “But this was unwound by a dovish presser in which Kevin Warsh emphasized tightening in financial conditions that now seems inconsistent with his reluctance to react to data.”

Bond Yields Shoot Lower on Fed Decision
Barrons.com57d agoneutral
Bond Yields Shoot Lower on Fed Decision

The bond market got a bit of relief after the Fed left short-term rates steady again. Yields on two-year Treasuries fell by as much as four basis points after Wednesday's Fed decision to 4.252%, compared with the previous close. Yields had been higher most of the day leading up to the interest-rate announcement.

Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged for 5th Straight Meeting
Barrons.com57d agoneutral
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged for 5th Straight Meeting

The Federal Reserve opted to keep short-term interest rates steady again on Wednesday. At the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep its target for the federal-funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% for the fifth straight meeting. Ahead of the announcement, the interest-rate futures market had the odds at 71% that officials would keep rates unchanged.

Treasury Yields Rise as Middle East Flare-Up Boosts Oil Prices
Barrons.com57d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Rise as Middle East Flare-Up Boosts Oil Prices

Renewed hostilities in the Middle East are pushing up Treasury yields as oil prices rally. The Iranian surprise attacks add uncertainty to U.S. monetary policy. Futures markets price in 64% odds of a hold by the Fed today, but bets on a hike rise to 36% from 31% yesterday, according to CME data.

It's Been a Brutal Week for Bond Markets
The Wall Street Journal62d agoneutral
It's Been a Brutal Week for Bond Markets

The latest escalation in the Middle East conflict has been tough on fixed-income investors. Global government bonds have tumbled this week, sending yields sharply higher, as surging oil prices revived inflation fears.

10-Year Yield Trades at Highest Level for the Year
Barrons.com63d agoneutral
10-Year Yield Trades at Highest Level for the Year

Treasuries are getting hit hard thanks to data showing economic resilience and higher oil prices. Meanwhile, jobless claims unexpectedly plunged. Higher oil prices push up yields as investors demand more coupon for a potentially higher inflation print in the future.

10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 2026 Peak Amid Inflation Worries
The Wall Street Journal64d agoneutral
10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 2026 Peak Amid Inflation Worries

Treasury yields continue to tick higher alongside oil prices, putting the 10-year yield close to its 2026 high point. The yield on the 10-year note climbed to 4.648% in morning trading, according to Tradeweb, just shy of the 4.687% intraday high that it reached on May 19. The uptick in oil prices is making investors more worried about the inflation outlook, with traders now seeing a roughly 50% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates twice before the end of the year.

Treasury Yields Higher Ahead of Fed Meeting
Barrons.com65d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Higher Ahead of Fed Meeting

Treasury's fell sending yields higher, concluding a day of light U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. Brent crude futures added 2% to settle above $90 a barrel.