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The market is pricing in a rate increase as the most likely outcome at the central bank's upcoming meeting, according to CME Fed Watch. Odds the Fed will announce an increase in rates on Sept. 16 ticked lower to 64% from 66% on Wednesday, though were still significantly higher than they were just last week. The slight pullback came after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the recent rise in Treasury yields reflected a strong economy and signaled a wait-and-see approach to September's meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose moderately today even as worries about rising bond yields and a surge in oil prices are top of traders’ minds. Here is what is driving the markets today: Bonds, treasuries and a global selloff: The bond market is dramatic again today.

Bond yields stayed elevated on Wednesday as oil prices hovered near $95 a barrel, spurring worries of higher inflation.

New York Fed President John Williams indicated that he doesn't see clear-cut evidence right now that the Fed must raise interest rates to respond to persistent inflation. In an interview with CNBC, Williams said the current spate of rising prices is due in part to passing causes: one-time price increases from the Trump administration's tariffs and higher energy prices from the Iran conflict. It is not yet certain, he said, that those trends are snowballing into a broader bout of inflation that the Fed must respond to.

Great earnings are now old news. The next market hurdles are the jobs report, CPI, and the Fed’s rate decision.

Treasury yields pushed higher again, taking benchmark 10-year notes to the highest levels since the autumn of 2023, as the global bond market rout continues to unsettle investor sentiment. Benchmark 10-year note yields touched 4.81% in early Wednesday dealing, marking a near 40 basis point rise over the past two months and trading at the highest levels since November of 2023. Longer-dated 30-year bonds, meanwhile, changed hands at 5.292%, a level higher than when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent introduced a new bond buying plan on Aug. 18 in an attempt to tame yields and restore order in the $31 trillion Treasury market.

The artificial-intelligence boom that has powered the S&P 500 higher this year may soon be relegated to supporting character status.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has played down concerns over the bond market selloff this week as benchmark Treasury yields top 4.8%. Here’ s what he said at a G-20 finance ministers’ gathering in Asheville, N.

Investors are now pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting. That is up from 37% a week ago, according to CME Group data. The jump in rate expectations is a major driver behind the rise in U.

US stocks edged lower on Wednesday as rising oil prices and bond yields sent ripple effects across markets.

Great earnings are now old news. The next market hurdles are the jobs report, CPI, and the Fed’s rate decision.

Don't ignore rising bond yields!

Stocks slipped in early trading on Tuesday as long-dated bond yields rose and speculation of a rate hike this year grew.

Wall Street's historically worst month is under way as bond yield spikes and the continued rise in oil spooked investors. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.3%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.7%. The Dow declined 0.

Global bond yields (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) spike to a 20-year high on Tuesday, while US stock futures (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F) get dragged lower and oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) rise further. Morning Brief Host Julie Hyman is joined by Yahoo Finance Breaking Business News Reporter Jake Conley and Senior Reporter Pras Subramanian to outline the current bond market conditions, characterizing it as being in a "waiting period" amid many factors.

The surge in bond yields has rattled investors, and it's not just a U.S. problem. The 10-year Treasury yield was up to 4.8%, its highest level in more than a year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The uptick in yields came as the ongoing conflict in Iran reignited and weighed on stock futures ahead of Tuesday's opening bell.

A sustained move higher in yields will have consequences well beyond Wall Street. One of the most direct victims is the government itself, which will be forced to pay higher interest rates on its growing pile of debt as older bonds mature and are replaced by new ones. Over the past half-century, federal interest costs averaged 2.1% of GDP.

Traders are pricing in a more than 66% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point later this month, according to CME data. Expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates jumped after Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Stocks closed out August with solid gains and are now entering their historically weakest month.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged up further on Monday to trade as high as 4.755%, the highest intraday value since January 15, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Yields rise when bond prices fall--essentially investors are now paying less money to buy that same fixed payout on a long bond. Yields had risen on Friday as well after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech that signaled higher rates are here to stay.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both tended to decline by 1.1% in September. Things don’t look much better for the Nasdaq Composite, either.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both tended to decline by 1.1% in September. Things don’t look much better for the Nasdaq Composite, either.

The stock market picked up steam even as odds of a September interest-rate hike rose in the wake of Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Warsh's first speech at Jackson Hole since taking over as Fed chair had traders upping bets on a September rate hike.

Stocks were struggling to find direction on Friday after Kevin Warsh began his Jackson Hole speech. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%. The tone of Warsh's speech was more hawkish than his prior comments since taking over as chairman.

How much will Kevin Warsh say in Jackson Hole today? Today marks his first major address since then, but some market watchers are skeptical the tight-lipped chairman will tip his hands on rates. “The irony is that he now faces pressure to communicate more clearly to address questions around the Fed’s credibility,” wrote Hetal Mehta, chief economist at the British wealth manager St. James’s Place.

Stocks weren’t moving much at the open on Friday, as Wall Street awaited Kevin Warsh’s looming Jackson Hole speech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%.

Treasuries have rallied heading into Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chairman. The bond market typically sells off in the lead-up to the Fed's annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. From 2011 to 2025, 10-year Treasury yields rose 5 basis points or 0.05 percentage points, on average, in the week prior to Jackson Hole, according to Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO.

All eyes turned to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak.

Think Treasurys are having a rough summer? It's even uglier abroad. Countries with large debt burdens—France, Italy, the U.K., Japan—have come under the heaviest pressure in recent months. The forces fueling the overseas rout include renewed inflation fears, fiscal woes in France, pressure on the Japanese yen and budget worries in the U.

The Fed’s closely-watched inflation gauge revealed prices were a bit higher than expected in July--bond traders don't like that. After taking a breather on Tuesday, bonds are selling off yet again. Yield were up across the board on Wednesday morning; both the 2-year and 10-year yield were up by around 0.