Notícias

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note shot up 0.15 percentage point to 5.11%, its highest level since 2007. The upshot will be higher borrowing costs throughout the economy if yields don’t return to their previous levels. Mortgage rates already are heading toward 7%, or even higher, threatening to depress an already weak housing market in many parts of the country.

The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited rate hikes are unlikely to rescue the beaten-down Treasury market. Long-dated U.S. government bonds, as measured by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund, have generated 4.4% in losses this year on a total-return basis. Consider this: The 10-year breakeven rate, which measures future inflation expectations, has only risen 0.09 percentage points this year through Wednesday, even as the 10-year Treasury yield has risen nearly a full percentage point to 5.02%, a 19-year high.

Treasury yields are climbing fast, and some of the most popular income ETFs on the market are quietly becoming traps for unsuspecting investors chasing yield.

Inflation is the traditional enemy of bonds, because it makes future returns worth less. But there’s another factor in play now.

<p>US-listed ETFs took in more than $38 billion last week.</p>

Short-term notes tend to be highly influenced by the Federal Reserve. Long-term bonds have been responding to something else.

Rising yields on long-term Treasurys pushed the largest long-term bond fund, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), to a 22-year low.

<p>The aggregate bond market has nearly healed from its worst drawdown in a generation. </p>

Crude oil has fallen back into the $60-$70 range, inflation fears are fading, and traders are pricing in a less restrictive Fed. Could Treasury yields be the next market to catch up? We break down the fundamentals, seasonals, and technicals, pointing toward lower yields into early September.

Bond yields may scare investors away from long-duration Treasuries, providing an opportunity for contrarian investors to make a move.

<p>YTD inflows are up to $860 billion.</p>

Dividend stocks have help up better than bonds this year as the stock market shrugs off risks better.

Stocks are modestly higher amid a dip in crude oil prices and Treasury yields. Gold and silver are mixed, while the dollar is flat.

It's the last line of support and a famous long-term government bond fund is close to crossing it. If the fund manages to trade below that level, it will surpass its 2023 closing low of $82.77 and be on pace for its lowest close since June 12, 2007, when it closed at $82.35.

After the breakout in global bond yields last Friday, they continued higher on Monday, albeit more modestly. It started in Japan, writes Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.

A stronger-than-expected April jobs report gave investors a second straight upside surprise, a welcome development after an uneven stretch for the labor market. Payrolls rose while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, although average hourly earnings were a bit light, writes Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro US.

The Federal Reserve has already trimmed its policy rate by 0.75 percentage points over the past year, leaving the upper bound at 3.75%. The question facing rate-sensitive sectors is what happens if the cutting cycle continues. Three exchange-traded funds sit at the center of that question: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), the ... Rate Cuts Are Coming: Here’s How to Position TLT, XLRE, and ITB Now

After a moderate pullback on war worries yesterday, stocks are rising today. Gold and silver are rebounding as well, while crude oil is giving up ground. The dollar is flat, while Treasury yields continue to flirt with key levels.