Research report
AI needs power, buy uranium. True, and useless.
The Uranium Report · Edition 2, data as of 2 November 2026
"Uranium stocks" is not one trade. It is a chain of businesses wearing a single theme: the miners and developers who dig it, the enrichment chokepoint that turns it into fuel, and the reactors that will burn it. Edition 2 (data as of 2 November 2026) maps the chain layer by layer (CCJ, NXE, UEC, UUUU, DNN, LEU, the reactor names and BWXT) so you can pick the layer that matches your bet instead of buying the theme blind.
Look inside before you buy
3,168 words · about 14 min to read · 13 sections · data as of 2 November 2026
Table of contents
- What changed since Edition 1
- What this is
- What this is not
- 1. The one-page thesis
- 2. The method: map the chain, then pick the layer
- 3. The layers, name by name
- Layer 1, the miners and developers
- Layer 2, the enrichment chokepoint
- Layer 3, the consumers
- 4. The comparison, one table
- 5. The shared fault line, measured
- 6. How to access
- 7. The shape of the risk: three layers, three behaviours
- 8. What to watch
- 9. What this report cannot do
- 10. Sources
Excerpt
1. The one-page thesis
The market trades "uranium" as one ticker with a dozen names on it. That is wrong in a specific, expensive way: the names sit at different points of a supply chain, and the chain runs from a commodity price-taker at one end to a national-security chokepoint at the other.
Follow the fuel. A miner digs uranium out of the ground. That ore is not reactor fuel: it has to be converted and then enriched before a reactor can burn it, and enrichment is a chokepoint the West spent two decades outsourcing. At the far end sit the reactors themselves, the consumers, whose demand is mostly future demand. Three layers, one theme, a roughly seventeen-times spread in size between the largest and smallest fuel name, and completely different risk profiles underneath.
Buying "uranium" blind means buying all three layers at once, at whatever weights an index happened to choose. The point of this report is that you can do better than blind: pick the layer that matches your thesis, and know what you are paying for it.
One table from the document
4. The comparison, one table
| Name | Layer | Market cap | Ed. 1 cap | 1 month | 1 year | What you are buying | Where the risk lives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameco (CCJ) | Miner, bellwether | ~$32.0B | ~$43.5B | -16% | -28% | At-scale production plus 49% of Westinghouse | Price-taker; single-mill outages |
| NexGen (NXE) | Developer | ~$7.2B | not covered | -13% | -19% | One large deposit, first output ~2030 | No revenue, capex, no contract yet |
| Uranium Energy (UEC) | Miner, ramping | ~$3.7B | ~$6.1B | -20% | -50% | US in-situ production ramp, no debt | Small output, price leverage |
| Energy Fuels (UUUU) | Miner, blended | ~$2.0B | ~$3.7B | -32% | -64% | Uranium plus a rare earth magnet build | Not a pure uranium bet; dilution |
| Denison (DNN) | Developer | ~$1.9B | ~$3.1B | -19% | -33% | Phoenix, first output mid-2028 | No cash-flow cushion yet |
| Centrus (LEU) | Enrichment chokepoint | ~$1.9B | ~$3.5B | -33% | -74% | The US HALEU bottleneck | Slow to build; sentiment-driven |
| Oklo / NuScale / Nano | Reactors | ~$7.7B / $2.2B / $0.95B | varied | -29% to -35% | -77% to -88% | Optionality on the buildout | Future demand, not today's |
| BWXT | Components | ~$12.0B | not covered | -4% | -39% | Naval and commercial nuclear manufacturing | Least exposed to the theme's swings |
The preview stops here. The full document is delivered by email after purchase.
Same theme, opposite businesses
About a seventeen-times spread in size sits between Cameco and the smallest fuel names, and the business models underneath are not the same trade. A miner is a price-taker on the uranium price; the enricher is a national-security chokepoint; the reactors are optionality on a buildout that has not happened at scale. In the month to 2 November they fell by 4% to 35% depending on the layer, after a quarter in which the uranium price rose. Buying "uranium" blind means buying all of it at once, at whatever weights an index chose. The report is the case for picking the layer instead.
The layer everyone skips
Mined uranium is not reactor fuel: it has to be enriched first, and that is a chokepoint the West spent two decades outsourcing to Russia. The new small reactors need a fuel called HALEU, and Centrus is the only US-licensed plant that has produced it. Edition 2 dates what changed there since September: the $900 million DOE contract, the raise at $199.64 a share, the first new centrifuge shipped on 29 October. It is the layer the theme skips, and the uranium ETFs, weighted to miners, under-represent it.
One basket, one bet, measured
The ten-name Nuclear / SMR bubble averages a 0.715 correlation across 45 pairs on the last 252 sessions, the tightest of the twelve bubbles QuantAbundance measures. Clustering splits it into the fuel names and the reactor-plus-enrichment names, with BWXT on its own. So a "diversified" four-miner basket is, on the axis that matters most, one bet. The report gives you the shape instead: a bellwether as ballast, the enrichment name as beta, the developers as the leveraged tail.
What is inside
- What changed since Edition 1, in one list: market caps, the October fall by layer, new filings, a corrected correlation claim.
- The fuel chain mapped in three layers (miners and developers, enrichment, reactors and components), so you place each name before you rank it.
- Every name with its market cap and one-month and one-year move at the 2 November close: CCJ, NXE, UEC, UUUU (half rare earths), DNN, LEU, OKLO, SMR, NNE and BWXT.
- The enrichment chokepoint (LEU) dated filing by filing, and why the miner-weighted ETFs under-represent it.
- The shared fault line, measured: the bubble's correlation, its sub-clusters and their tightest pairs.
- Forward triggers led by the gap between the uranium price and the stocks, with the supply disruptions Cameco lists.
- A numbered source list: every figure with its SEC filing or data page URL.
Buy it if
- You believe the nuclear buildout and want to know which layer of it to actually own, not just "buy uranium".
- You want the miner, the enricher, the developer and the reactor told apart rather than blended into a theme.
- You are weighing a uranium ETF and want to know what its miner weighting leaves out.
Skip it if
- You want a buy or sell call. There are none here, by design and by law.
- You want a uranium price forecast. The report trades the cross-section (which layer, at what risk), not the direction of the price.
- You want figures that never move. Edition 2 is dated 2 November 2026 and refreshed each quarter; a report older than 60 days is withdrawn from sale until it is refreshed.
How delivery works
Pay through Stripe, and the document arrives by email within seconds as a permanent link tied to your address. Read it in the browser or print it to PDF. Nothing to install, nothing recurring: a one-time purchase. Lost the email? Sign in to your library with the same address and it is there.
Included in Pro. See Pro
An educational research publication, not investment advice, trade signals, a managed account, or an advisory service. Nothing in it is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. See our disclosures.