Ticker Teardown Dossier
Vistra ($VST), taken apart the way the desk does.
Vistra (VST) Teardown Dossier · As of 2026-11-06, refreshed after Q2 2026 results
The VST dossier is the desk's Vistra teardown written out as a document, plus what a five-minute video cannot carry: the last eight quarters of Vistra's own SEC filings in one table (fiscal years for a foreign filer whose quarterly reports carry no structured data), a peer comparison with numbers, the level map rebuilt from the latest close, and a link to every filing used. Rebuilt after each quarterly print.
Look inside before you buy
2,170 words · about 9 min to read · 10 sections · data as of 6 November 2026 · last refreshed after Q2 2026 results
Table of contents
- What is in this dossier
- What this is not
- 1. The teardown
- The setup
- The business: generates it, then sells it
- The deal: read the split
- The second channel
- Ops vs multiple: they diverged
- The bear case
- The chart: be honest
- The verdict
- 2. What changed since it was written
- 3. The filings: the last eight quarters
- 4. Valuation against the peers
- 5. Level map
- 6. Sources
- 7. What this dossier cannot do
- More dossiers in this theme
Excerpt
1. The teardown
Written 2026-09-09, with prices as of 2026-09-11. Figures in this part are as the desk read them that day; parts 2 to 5 carry the numbers as of 2026-11-06.
The setup
In January, Vistra sold Meta 2,600 megawatts of nuclear power on twenty year contracts. And over the last twelve months, the stock is down almost 21%. Meanwhile, in its most recent quarter, adjusted operating earnings rose 30%. What is the market seeing that the headline is not?
The business: generates it, then sells it
Start with what Vistra actually is, because the words power company hide the structure. Vistra is an independent power producer. It owns the plants and sells the electricity, without a regulated monopoly. The fleet is about 50 gigawatts across 18 states. Inside it sits the part that matters: 6,448 megawatts of nuclear, the second largest competitive nuclear fleet in the country. On the other end, the retail brands TXU Energy and Dynegy sell power to about 5 million customers. Vistra generates it, and Vistra sells it.
The deal: read the split
Vistra agreed to supply Meta with 2,609 megawatts of carbon free power. The split is the whole story. 2,176 megawatts come from plants running today: 1,268 megawatts from Perry, 908 from Davis-Besse, both in Ohio. The remaining 433 megawatts do not exist yet. They come from uprates, meaning engineering work to lift output at the two Ohio plants and at Beaver Valley in Pennsylvania. Which the companies say is the largest set of nuclear uprates supported by a corporate customer in the United States.
One table from the document
3. The filings: the last eight quarters
| USD millions, period ended | 2024-09-30 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal period | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
| Source filing | 10-Q 2024-11-08 | 10-K 2025-02-28 | 10-Q 2025-05-08 | 10-Q 2025-08-08 | 10-Q 2025-11-07 | 10-K 2026-02-27 | 10-Q 2026-05-08 | 10-Q 2026-08-10 |
| Revenue | 6,288 | 4,037 | 3,933 | 4,250 | 4,971 | 4,584 | 5,640 | 4,017 |
| Gross margin | n/r | n/r | n/r | n/r | n/r | n/r | n/r | n/r |
| Operating income | 2,588 | 599.0 | -120.0 | 515.0 | 1,037 | 474.0 | 1,499 | 553.0 |
| Net income | 1,888 | 441.0 | -268.0 | 327.0 | 652.0 | 233.0 | 1,029 | 305.0 |
| Operating cash flow | 1,702 | 1,353 | 599.0 | 572.0 | 1,467 | 1,432 | 1,199 | 1,023 |
| Capex | -685.0 | -430.0 | -768.0 | -690.0 | -458.0 | -836.0 | -883.0 | -689.0 |
| Free cash flow | 1,017 | 923.0 | -169.0 | -118.0 | 1,009 | 596.0 | 316.0 | 334.0 |
| Cash and equivalents | 905.0 | 1,188 | 561.0 | 458.0 | 602.0 | 785.0 | 634.0 | 435.0 |
| Debt (book, excl. leases) | 14,730 | 16,298 | 16,305 | 15,770 | 15,988 | 17,043 | 19,163 | 19,595 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 350.2 | 352.6* | 339.8 | 345.5 | 345.0 | 345.7* | 341.9 | 339.2 |
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What the dossier has that the video does not
The filings themselves: revenue, gross margin, operating income, net income, operating cash flow, capex, free cash flow, cash, debt and diluted shares, quarter by quarter, each column dated with the filing it comes from. A foreign filer whose quarterly reports carry no structured data gets its fiscal years, and the dossier says so.
Never stale
Every dossier carries an "as of" date and the quarter it was last refreshed after. It is rebuilt after each print, and the desk's daily check flags any dossier left more than 45 days without a refresh. The written teardown keeps its date, and a "what changed since" section gives the move in the price and the filings since.
What is inside
- The teardown in writing: the business, the bull case, the full bear case and the verdict, dated.
- What changed since it was written: the price move and every SEC filing since.
- Eight quarters of the company's own SEC filings in one table, each column dated, with a plain read of what the table says.
- Peers with numbers: market cap, revenue growth, operating margin, EV / sales and distance from the 52-week high.
- The level map rebuilt from the latest close: where the price sits against the 52-week range and each level.
- Sources: a link to every filing and results release used.
Buy it if
- You hold or watch $VST and want a structured read before acting.
- You want levels you can check on the chart, not an opinion.
Skip it if
- You want a buy signal. A dossier explains and maps; it does not signal.
- You want every name on the desk. The Teardown Library covers every dossier, current and future, for less than four dossiers.
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