AAOI
NASDAQAnalystsBuy5+211%Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ação
Information Technology · Communications Equipment
$50.13last close
+72.3%~252d
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Price
+72.27% over 1Y1 auto-fib
Video teardown
A walkthrough of this page: the numbers, the levels, and where it sits.
Tese
em 2026-11-08
AI optical transceiver vendor for hyperscaler datacenter networks (400G/800G interconnect). Q2 FY26 (2026-08-06) revenue $191.9M, +86% YoY and +27% QoQ, a 5th consecutive record quarter; 800G volumes more than doubled sequentially. Mix is only half AI: datacenter $107.7M (56%) vs a record CATV $80.6M (42%).
Still loss-making as reported (GAAP net loss $22.8M, -$0.28) against non-GAAP net income $5.5M ($0.06). Q3 FY26 guided $255-290M, roughly +130% YoY at the midpoint, on ~92.8M shares vs 80.24M in May, so dilution stays the structural overhang.
Amazon ~50% historical concentration (annual filings, not a quarterly disclosure). ~15x trailing sales on a ~$9.1Bn cap after a ~52% drawdown.
- 2026-03-31 Q1 FY26 - revenue $151.1M (+51% YoY vs Q1 FY25 $99.9M); 5th consecutive sequentially-accelerating quarter (SEC EDGAR 10-Q)
- 2025-12-31 FY25 - revenue $455.7M (+83% YoY vs FY24 $249.4M). The inflection year (SEC EDGAR 10-K)
- Quarterly trajectory: Q1'25 $99.9M → Q2 $103.0M → Q3 $118.6M → Q4 $134.2M → Q1'26 $151.1M
- Product line: 400G + 800G optical transceivers (LR4 / FR4 / DR4 form factors) for hyperscaler datacenter AI compute clusters
- Customer concentration: Amazon Web Services historically ~50% of revenue; Microsoft + Cisco material; specific quarterly customer mix not disclosed
- Capital structure: shares outstanding 80.24M (+49.96% YoY from ~53M base). +50% YoY dilution material to per-share economics; per-share revenue growth ~22% in FY25 vs 83% topline
- 2026-05-28 read-through - DELL Q1 FY27 print disclosed $24.4Bn AI orders booked + raised FY27 AI server guide to ~$60Bn (+144% YoY). Every $1 of AI server revenue carries embedded optical interconnect spend; AAOI is the dominant US-listed 400G/800G pure-play
- Snapshot 2026-05-29: spot $154.66 (−8.54% session), 30% off ATH ~$220-230. Market cap $12.42Bn, EV $13.40Bn. TTM revenue $506.9M = P/S 24.5x, EV/Sales 26.4x. Peer comp: CRDO ~14x, LITE ~3.5x, CIEN ~2.2x
- Setup tension: hypergrowth (+50%) + hyperdilution (+50%) + customer concentration (~50% on Amazon). Bull case is sustained sequential acceleration through FY26 toward $700-750M revenue + hyperscaler capex confirmation from DELL/MSFT/META capex disclosures. Bear case is Amazon capex revision, continued dilution outpacing topline, or competitive pressure from Coherent + CRDO scaling. Next print Q2 FY26 ~early August 2026.
clientesAmazon Web Services · Microsoft
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Bubblescapital-flow co-movement
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Top correlated252d co-movement
Related research
Long-form analysis touching AAOI
- 5 minApplied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Q3 2026: revenue up 127% to $269.9M, back to a GAAP profitAOI posted record revenue of $269.9M, up 127%, with datacenter revenue up 254% to $155.6M and a return to GAAP profit, $6.3M. The Q4 guide is $385M to $420M, while the US capacity plan for 2027 is running late on power.
- 7 minApplied Optoelectronics (AAOI) - transceptores 800G e a aposta nos hyperscalersReceita da AAOI +51% YoY, para US$151M no Q1 do FY26, com 5 trimestres de aceleração sequencial; mcap de US$12,4Bi a 24,5x P/S. Amazon concentra ~50% da receita, com diluição de ações de +50% YoY. A tese dos transceptores ópticos de IA, o risco de concentração de clientes e onde a AAOI se encaixa no bubble networking-óptico da QA.
- 7 minRoundhill Photonics & Optics ETF ($LYTE): a primeira aposta concentrada dos EUA em interconexão ópticaRoundhill protocolou o $LYTE em 20 de maio de 2026 - um ETF de Photonics & Optics concentrado, ligado a silicon photonics, óptica co-empacotada e interconexão óptica de IA. Prováveis holdings, ETFs comparáveis, e o que acompanhar antes do lançamento.
- 8 minO que é validação walk-forward? 104 pares estratégia-ticker testados - só 54% sobreviveramA validação walk-forward separa o acaso in-sample da vantagem real. 104 pares (estratégia, ticker) testados no universo QA - 56 ROBUST, 20 STABLE, 18 LUMPY, 10 sem trades. Aqui está o procedimento, os veredictos e por que a maioria dos backtests de varejo falha nele em silêncio.
Recent news
High-signal only
- Motley Fool2d agoApplied Optics (AAOI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Motley Fool2d agoAOI Sales Up 127%, Gross Margin Stuck at 28%: Rapid Earnings Reaction
- MarketBeat3d agoWhat Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call
- Investing.com3d agobearishApplied Optoelectronics tumbles on weak fourth quarter guidance
- MT Newswires3d agoApplied Optoelectronics Q3 Swings to Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rises; Q4 Guidance Set
- Associated Press3d agoApplied Optoelectronics: Q3 Earnings Snapshot
- 24/7 Wall St.3d agobearishApplied Optoelectronics Sinks 16%, Coherent Tumbles 14% Despite Strong Outlook, Lumentum Plunges 13% as AI Optical Stocks Slide
- 24/7 Wall St.5d agobullishCoherent Rallies 6% Ahead of Earnings as Optical Stocks Rebound; Applied Optoelectronics Gains 5%, Lumentum Ticks Up
Key levels
- -22.3%$64.550.786 retr of 18.50->233.67 (52w) · 2026-11-06
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
- -50.2%$100.690.618 retr of 18.50->233.67 (52w) · 2026-11-06Out of reach · reference only
- -51.1%$102.49SMA 200 / deep structural anchor · 2026-05-29Out of reach · reference only
- -53.9%$108.70BB80 lower / first major support · 2026-05-29Out of reach · reference only
- -55.2%$112.00Key Fib level · 2026-04-25Out of reach · reference only
- -60.2%$126.080.5 retr of 18.50->233.67 (52w) · 2026-11-06Out of reach · reference only
- -66.9%$151.480.382 retr of 18.50->233.67 (52w) · 2026-11-06Out of reach · reference only
- -68.6%$159.40BB80 mid / first overhead · 2026-05-29Out of reach · reference only
- -76.1%$210.10BB80 upper / pre-ATH consolidation · 2026-05-29Out of reach · reference only
- -77.7%$225.00ATH / parabolic top · 2026-05-29Out of reach · reference only
Facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Currency
- USD
- Market cap
- $4.55B
- Last update
- 2026-11-06
Revenue (TTM)$747M
P/E -
P/S6.1×
Net margin-4.4%
Frequently asked questions
- What AI bubble is AAOI in?
- Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is mapped to the Networking / Optical bubble on QuantAbundance. Applied Optoelectronics - datacenter optical transceivers (400G/800G); hyperscaler bandwidth-buildout pure play.
- What sector is AAOI in?
- Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is classified under GICS Information Technology (Communications Equipment).
- What is AAOI's last close price?
- AAOI last closed at $50.13 on 2026-11-06.