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ASML Holding N.V.
Information Technology · Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
EUV is a single-vendor monopoly anchored by 25 years of compounded IP + the optical-supplier moat (Zeiss SMT optics):
- Every leading-edge fab worldwide buys EUV from ASML; no competitor exists at the lithography step for sub-7nm.
- High-NA EUV ramping (TWINSCAN EXE:5200 systems shipping; required for 2nm + A16 + below) - selling price ~$400M+ per system, gross margins higher than mainstream EUV.
- Installed-base service revenue compounds with cumulative shipments; ~50% of mature-year revenue is service + spares with software-like margins.
- AI capex cycle pulls leading-edge wafer demand → fab capacity expansion → EUV bookings.
Bear:
- Customer concentration: TSMC + Samsung + Intel + SK Hynix + Micron are essentially the entire customer set.
- China export controls cap a portion of the addressable market (no EUV or recent-gen DUV to China since 2024).
- Multi-year bookings cycle = lumpy quarterly results + occasional air-pocket years when fabs digest prior orders.
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