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CNC
NYSEAnalystsBuy18+7%Health Care · Managed Health Care
Each weekday: the watchlist of pullbacks inside uptrends, every new ticker teardown, and the bubble shifts that move names like this one. Free. Education, not advice.
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Structural: largest Medicaid MCO (~13M Medicaid lives) + #1 ACA marketplace insurer (Ambetter ~4M) + top-5 Medicare Advantage (Wellcare ~1.1M). Earnings = premiums minus medical costs; MLR is the entire P&L lever. State rebid cycles (TX, CA, NY, FL renewals 2026-2027) determine multi-year revenue base.
Redeterminations unwind (post-2026 cliff) compressed Medicaid margins; ACA enhanced subsidies expire end-2026 absent Congressional extension.
ACA marketplace 50%+ enrollment growth 2024-2025; Medicare Advantage Stars recovery underway (HEDIS investments paying off in 2027 bonus year); Medicaid acuity normalizing as post-COVID redeterminations complete; share buybacks at ~6-7x fwd P/E with $2B+ annual FCF; divested non-core (Magellan Rx, Circle Health, Apixio) cleans up the story; SG&A ratio compressing toward 8% target.
ACA subsidy cliff end-2026 = potential 30-40% Ambetter enrollment hit if not extended; Medicare Advantage Stars cut hits 2026 bonus payments (already guided down); Medicaid MLR running hot (~89-90%) as redeterminations leave higher-acuity book; state rate inadequacy in CA + NY pressures 2026 margins; binary political risk (Medicaid block grants, ACA repeal narrative).
It reads our $CNC data (thesis, key levels, peers, a year of prices) and any chart screenshot you paste, then explains the setup in plain English. Free with an email login, 5 questions a day. Education only: it never tells you to buy or sell, and it can be wrong, so check the numbers.
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Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.