TLN
NASDAQAnalystsStrong Buy20+34%Talen Energy Corporation ação
Utilities · Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
$338.64last close
-12.3%~252d
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Price
-12.25% over 1Y4 auto-fib
Video teardown
A walkthrough of this page: the numbers, the levels, and where it sits.
Tese
em 2026-11-08
Bull case
Pure-play nuclear-to-hyperscaler PPA story. Susquehanna 2.5GW (TLN owns 90%) sits next to the Cumulus datacenter campus sold to $AMZN AWS in March 2024 for $650M, with an associated behind-the-meter PPA escalating to 1.92GW. FERC initially rejected the ISA amendment April 2025; settlement structure approved March 2026 cleared the path for full ramp.
- 1.92GW contracted nuclear capacity to $AMZN at premium fixed pricing - multi-year cash-flow visibility rare in IPP space
- Susquehanna license runs through 2042/2044 - long-dated asset against 15-25yr hyperscaler PPA demand
- Net-short capacity position in PJM as AI datacenter load tightens reserve margins through 2027
- ~$3B+ buyback authorization deployed aggressively - share count down ~10% since 2024 IPO
- Optionality on second behind-the-meter deal (Montour / additional Cumulus phases) repeatedly flagged on calls
Bear case
- FERC / PJM precedent on co-located load remains contested - any reversal compresses the premium PPA economics
- ~80% of EBITDA still merchant-exposed once you strip the AWS contract - gas/power curve sensitivity is real
- Nuclear operational tail risk: unplanned Susquehanna outage = direct PPA delivery shortfall
- Multiple has re-rated from ~6x to ~14x EV/EBITDA on the AI-power narrative - priced for execution
- Insider + sponsor (post-bankruptcy holders) selling pressure as lockups roll off
- Mar 2024 - Sold Cumulus datacenter campus to $AMZN AWS for $650M cash; signed behind-the-meter PPA to supply up to 960MW initially, escalating to 1.92GW over 10 years
- Apr 2025 - FERC rejected the ISA amendment for the AWS co-location structure (2-1 vote), creating ~12-month overhang
- Mar 2026 - FERC approved revised settlement framework allowing co-located load to ramp; restored full economic path for the AWS deal
- 2024-2026 - ~$3B+ cumulative buyback authorization; share count reduced ~10% from IPO base
- Susquehanna NRC operating licenses extended through 2042 (Unit 1) and 2044 (Unit 2)
clientesAmazon Web Services · PJM Interconnection
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Top correlated252d co-movement
Related research
Long-form analysis touching TLN
- 5 minTalen Energy (TLN) Q3: EBITDA up 84%, the buyback paid with future capacity is the storyTalen posted $669M of Adjusted EBITDA, up 84%, and $433M of Adjusted Free Cash Flow. A first 2027 guide sits 26% higher, and a $1.5B buyback runs on sold PJM capacity.
- 4 minVistra (VST) Q3 2026: Adjusted EBITDA up 50%, 2027 guide of $7.7B to $8.5B, Cogentrix closedVistra posted Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $2.38B, up from $1.58B, and net income of $1.14B. It narrowed its 2026 guide to $7.1B to $7.5B, opened 2027 at $7.7B to $8.5B, closed the Cogentrix gas deal and added $1.5B of buybacks.
- 8 minVistra (VST): what it does, how it makes money, and why a Meta nuclear deal has not re-rated itA ~$50B independent power producer with the second-largest US competitive nuclear fleet, now selling 2,609 MW of nuclear to Meta on 20-year contracts. What Vistra does, how VST makes money, and where it sits in the datacenter-power bubble.
- 5 minIREN Q1 FY2027: AI cloud revenue nearly triples to $200M, the $4B run rate slips to JanuaryIREN posted revenue of $228M, up 66% in a quarter, with AI cloud revenue up 182% to $200M and bitcoin mining down to $28M. The backlog rose to $20.3B, the net loss was $263M, and the $4B run-rate target moved from year-end to January 2027.
Recent news
High-signal only
- MarketBeat21h agoVistra Q3 Earnings Call Highlights
- Motley Fool5d agoTalen Energy (TLN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Moby5d agoTalen Energy Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- MarketBeat5d agoTalen Energy Q3 Earnings Call Highlights
- Zacks5d agoTalen Energy Corporation (TLN) Lags Q3 Earnings Estimates
- Associated Press5d agoTalen Energy: Q3 Earnings Snapshot
- MT Newswires5d agobearishTalen Energy's Q3 Earnings Fall, Revenue Rises
- GlobeNewswire5d agoTalen Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance, and Introduces 2027 Guidance
Key levels
- -1.8%$344.740.618 retr of 279.77->449.84 (52w) · 2026-11-06
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
- +7.1%$316.170.786 retr of 279.77->449.84 (52w) · 2026-11-06
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
- -7.2%$364.810.5 retr of 279.77->449.84 (52w) · 2026-11-06
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
- -12.0%$384.870.382 retr of 279.77->449.84 (52w) · 2026-11-06
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
Facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Currency
- USD
- Market cap
- $14.73B
- Last update
- 2026-11-06
Revenue (TTM)$4.5B
P/E -
P/S3.3×
Net margin-5.7%
Frequently asked questions
- What AI bubble is TLN in?
- Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is mapped to the Datacenter Power bubble on QuantAbundance. Susquehanna nuclear deal with AMZN.
- What sector is TLN in?
- Talen Energy Corporation is classified under GICS Utilities (Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders).
- What is TLN's last close price?
- TLN last closed at $338.64 on 2026-11-06.