Theme
AI Inference
Custom silicon and connectivity for inference workloads.
0.540avg corr (252d)
9stocks
Decent co-movementStocks · key Fib levels
- ALAB$190.71last$186.00fib+2.5%vs fibanchored by Amazon AWS · Microsoft Azure · Google Cloud · Meta · NVIDIA · Dell · Supermicro
- 2026 Q1: Scorpio P-Series PCIe Gen6 fabric switches sampling to hyperscalers; production ramp guided H2 2026.
- 2025 Q4: Disclosed design wins on NVDA GB300 NVL72 platform - Aries + Scorpio attach.
- 2025: Sole-source PCIe retimer on multiple AWS Trainium2 / Inferentia server SKUs.
- 2025: COSMOS software suite extended to fleet-wide telemetry across all four product lines.
- 2024 Q1: IPO at $36 (Mar 2024), priced above range; first pure-play AI interconnect public listing.
- AMD$449.04last$253.00fib+77.5%vs fibanchored by Microsoft · Meta · Oracle · OpenAI · Google · Amazon
- 2024-12: $MSFT Azure ND MI300X VM series GA - first hyperscaler MI300 production deployment
- 2025-02: $META disclosed MI300X internal inference workload at scale (Llama serving)
- 2025-06: $ORCL OCI MI300X bare-metal instances live; multi-billion commitment disclosed
- 2025-10: MI325X launch - 256GB HBM3E, shipping to hyperscaler anchors Q4 2025
- 2026-Q1: MI350 series (CDNA4, 3nm) sampling; production ramp H2 2026
- 2026-Q1: ZT Systems acquisition closed - rack-scale AI systems integration in-house
- 2026-04: EPYC Turin (5th gen, Zen 5) shipping; cited in $ORCL, $GOOG, $AMZN earnings as standard fleet CPU
- ARM$174.62last$185.00fib−5.6%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Apple · AWS · Google · Microsoft · Meta · Qualcomm · MediaTek · Samsung
- 2024-02 - Microsoft Cobalt 100 announced - first MSFT-custom Arm server CPU; Azure deployment broadens
- 2024-04-09 - Google Axion (Arm v9) announced for GCP general-purpose compute
- 2024-05 - Apple M4 launched (3nm, all-Arm v9 across M-series, A18 Pro across iPhone, S-chip across watch)
- 2024-11 - AWS Graviton4 GA; Arm Neoverse V2 powers 50%+ of EC2 compute hours within targeted SKUs
- 2025 - NVIDIA Grace + Blackwell shipping at scale (Arm v9 Neoverse V2 paired with every Blackwell GPU); Rubin generation continues the Arm pairing
- 2025-09 - Google Axion GA on GCP
- 2026-Q1 - Apple M5 (3nm successor, Arm v9.x) + A19 Pro launch maintain Apple's 100% Arm-silicon stack
- 2026 - Compute Subsystems (CSS) chiplet IP in production-ready hyperscaler programs; royalty per AI accelerator unit rises as CSS-licensed designs ship
- AVGO$293.69last$336.00fib−12.6%vs fibanchored by Alphabet · Meta Platforms · Apple · undisclosed third hyperscaler
- Nov 2023 - Closed $69B VMware acquisition; began subscription conversion + portfolio trim
- Sep 2024 - Disclosed third large hyperscaler XPU customer in development (unnamed)
- Dec 2024 - Guided AI semi SAM to $60-90B by FY27 across 3 hyperscaler customers
- 2024-2026 - $GOOGL TPU v5/v6/v7 silicon co-design (multi-generation)
- 2024-2026 - $META MTIA v1/v2 inference + training silicon partner
- 2026 - Multi-year $AAPL wireless component extension signed; RF baseline through FY28+
- Ongoing - Tomahawk 5 (51.2T) shipping; Tomahawk 6 (102.4T) sampling for AI scale-out fabrics
- CBRS$89.68last- fib$24.6B backlog750 MWanchored by G42 · MBZUAI (Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI) · OpenAI · Amazon Web Services
- 2024-09 - First S-1 filed; later withdrawn after CFIUS opened a review of G42's minority stake
- 2025-10 - CFIUS review concluded after G42 holding restructured to non-voting shares; path cleared for listing
- 2025-12-24 - NVIDIA's $20B Groq asset/license acquisition (read-through: frontier inference market partitioning into a specialist tier; NVDA buying in rather than ceding the lane)
- 2026-01-14 - OpenAI deal signed: 750 MW of low-latency compute through 2028. Initial press value $10B; subsequent MRA disclosures place binding commitments at >$20B with expansion provisions up to 2 GW by 2030
- 2026-02 - Hiive private secondary implied ~$23B valuation (IPO 3 months later doubled this)
- 2026-03-13 - AWS announced Cerebras as first cloud provider for disaggregated inference on Amazon Bedrock; Trainium + WSE pairing claims "5× more high-speed token capacity in the same hardware footprint"
- 2026-05-13 - IPO priced $185 (above $150-160 range, walked up from original $115-125); book reportedly 20× oversubscribed
- 2026-05-14 - Day 1 open $350, close $311.07 (+68.2%); $5.55B raised on 30M shares; $48.8B fully-diluted valuation; 2026's largest US tech IPO
- 2026-Q3 (est) - Accelerated lockup: 60M+ shares unlock by Q2 2026 earnings release, ~2× IPO float hitting tape inside 90 days (vs standard 180-day expiry mid-November 2026)
- Snapshot 2026-05-18: price ~$311, mcap ~$48.8B fully-diluted (~157M sh × $311), 2025 revenue $510M (+76% YoY from $290M), 2025 GAAP net income $237.8M but operating loss $145.9M
- Customer concentration: G42 (24% of 2025 rev, was 85% in 2024) + MBZUAI (62%) = ~86% UAE-linked, both flagged as related parties in the S-1; apparent 2025 diversification away from G42 was reallocation between connected Abu Dhabi entities, not new customer acquisition
- Backlog concentration: ~$24.6B disclosed, of which ~80% is OpenAI; revenue recognition gated by OpenAI's own datacenter buildout pace (power + zoning, not chips)
- Setup tension: first specialist inference accelerator on the public tape, but the entire forward business is explained by three customers (G42, MBZUAI, OpenAI) through 2028; GAAP profitability is non-operating (the $237.8M net income line is not a sustainable run-rate while operating loss continues); fast lockup creates structural supply pressure ~Q3 2026; inference TAM is contestable and workload-specific (21× B200 advantage on Llama 3 70B reasoning doesn't generalize to training, embeddings, or image gen)
- Editorial deep-dive: /articles/cerebras-cbrs-ipo
- CRDO$120.51last$148.00fib−18.6%vs fibanchored by Microsoft · Amazon Web Services · Intel Foundry · Samsung Foundry · TE Connectivity
- Microsoft - anchor AEC customer; multi-year ramp into Azure AI back-end fabric; disclosed >40% of revenue concentration in FY25 10-K
- Amazon (AWS) - second hyperscaler AEC design win; Trainium/Inferentia cluster fabric ramp through CY26
- Third US hyperscaler - disclosed in FY26 guide as ramping; widely believed to be $META or $GOOGL
- Intel Foundry - 5nm/3nm SerDes IP licensing engagement
- Samsung Foundry - SerDes IP partnership on advanced nodes
- TE Connectivity - joint AEC + connector reference designs for OCP/OAI form factors
- INTC$56.28last$60.00fib−6.2%vs fibanchored by Amazon Web Services · Microsoft · Dell · HP · Lenovo · Department of Defense · IBM Cloud
- 2024-02: CHIPS Act award - $8.5B grant + $11B loan for Arizona/Ohio/New Mexico fabs
- 2024-09: Amazon Web Services ($AMZN) - multi-year 18A custom AI fabric chip + Xeon 6 supply deal
- 2024-09: Microsoft ($MSFT) - 18A custom chip design win (disclosed at Direct Connect 2024)
- 2025-01: Department of Defense - Secure Enclave / RAMP-C trusted-fab Phase 3 award
- 2025-Q2: Altera carve-out - Silver Lake acquires 51% at $8.75B EV
- 2026-Q1: Gaudi 3 - IBM Cloud ($IBM) and Dell ($DELL) as launch infrastructure partners
- MRVL$141.20last$126.00fib+12.1%vs fibanchored by AWS · Microsoft · Google · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed third + fourth)
- 2021 - Inphi acquisition closed ($10B) - coherent-optical DSP leadership
- 2024 - AWS Trainium2 + Trainium3 custom-silicon programs ramping
- 2024 - Microsoft Maia 100 / successor program co-designed with Marvell
- 2025 - Coherent-optical DSPs inside 800G + 1.6T pluggables shipping in volume
- 2025-Q4 - Hyperscaler AI silicon revenue mix climbing; legacy networking mix shrinking as share of revenue
- 2026-Q1 - Quarterly print; AI silicon revenue commentary the watch
- 2026 - Multi-generation custom AI ASIC programs visible 2-3 years forward
- RMBS$74.53last- fibanchored by Micron · SK Hynix · Samsung · AMD · Marvell
- 2026-Q1: DDR5 server chipset revenue at multi-year high; MRDIMM design wins ramping into 2H26.
- 2026: HBM4 controller IP licensed to multiple AI accelerator customers (undisclosed hyperscaler ASIC programs).
- 2025: PCIe 6.0 and CXL 3.0 controller IP shipped - qualified into early adopters.
- 2025: Security IP design wins in automotive ADAS and post-quantum crypto programs.
- Ongoing: Patent license renewals with $MU, $SK Hynix, Samsung - royalty backbone.
Co-movement matrix (252d)
ALAB | AMD | ARM | AVGO | CBRS | CRDO | INTC | MRVL | RMBS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALAB | · | 0.65 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| AMD | 0.65 | · | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| ARM | 0.57 | 0.63 | · | 0.53 | 0.26 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| AVGO | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.53 | · | 0.35 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| CBRS | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.35 | · | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| CRDO | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.41 | · | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| INTC | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.51 | · | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| MRVL | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 0.51 | · | 0.65 |
| RMBS | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.65 | · |
Related research
- 5 min readAstera Labs (ALAB) Q3: revenue up 154% to $585M, Scorpio is now the biggest product
- 5 min readArm Holdings (ARM) Q2 FY2027: revenue up 27% to $1.44B, licensing up 50%, royalties only 8%
- 9 min readNVIDIA (NVDA): what it does, how it makes money, and why the AI build-out runs on it
- 8 min readMarvell (MRVL): what it does, how it makes money, and why it's the #2 in custom AI silicon
Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the AI Inference theme?
- QuantAbundance's AI Inference theme tracks 9 stocks ranked editorially: ALAB, AMD, ARM, AVGO, CBRS, CRDO, INTC, MRVL, RMBS.
- Do AI Inference stocks move together?
- The AI Inference theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.54 across its members - decent co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.