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Arm Holdings plc
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Universal CPU IP underneath the AI compute stack:
- Every hyperscaler custom server CPU is Arm v9 - AWS Graviton4, Google Axion, Microsoft Cobalt 100, Meta MTIA host
- Every NVIDIA AI platform pairs a Grace CPU (Arm v9, Neoverse V2) with the accelerator - Grace+Blackwell shipping at scale, Rubin generation continues the pairing
- Apple silicon (M-series, A-series, S-series, R1) - 100% Arm v9 across the entire device stack
- v9 royalty rate is ~2× v8 → structural ASP expansion on every chip shipped, independent of unit growth
- Compute Subsystems (CSS) chiplet IP pushes ARM up the value chain from ISA licensor to full system reference design → royalty per AI accelerator rises
Bear:
- Qualcomm v9 licensing dispute pending (Oryon / Snapdragon X) - outcome materially affects PC + handset royalty per-chip economics
- SoftBank still owns ~88% of float post-IPO → structural overhang on multiple expansion
- Forward PE 98 (semis-forward-pe-2026-05-03) is the richest multiple on the board - every percentage point of v9 mix has to print or the multiple compresses
The thesis, the numbers, the bear case and the level map for ARM, in one read. The deep version of what you just read.
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Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.
Auto-computed retracement of the trailing 52w low-high leg. Recomputed on each refresh; not a curated level.