Theme
CPU Bottleneck
Server CPUs, packaging and ARM-based silicon - the non-GPU compute layer.
0.614avg corr (252d)
4stocks
Strong co-movementStocks · key Fib levels
- AMD$449.04last$253.00fib+77.5%vs fibanchored by Microsoft · Meta · Oracle · OpenAI · Google · Amazon
- 2024-12: $MSFT Azure ND MI300X VM series GA - first hyperscaler MI300 production deployment
- 2025-02: $META disclosed MI300X internal inference workload at scale (Llama serving)
- 2025-06: $ORCL OCI MI300X bare-metal instances live; multi-billion commitment disclosed
- 2025-10: MI325X launch - 256GB HBM3E, shipping to hyperscaler anchors Q4 2025
- 2026-Q1: MI350 series (CDNA4, 3nm) sampling; production ramp H2 2026
- 2026-Q1: ZT Systems acquisition closed - rack-scale AI systems integration in-house
- 2026-04: EPYC Turin (5th gen, Zen 5) shipping; cited in $ORCL, $GOOG, $AMZN earnings as standard fleet CPU
- AMKR$32.82last$55.00fib−40.3%vs fibanchored by Apple · Qualcomm · NVIDIA · Broadcom · Texas Instruments
- 2024-11: CHIPS Act award finalized - up to $407M direct funding + up to 25% ITC for Peoria, AZ advanced-packaging facility (~$2B total capex)
- 2023-11: Apple ($AAPL) named anchor customer for Arizona facility - multi-year supply agreement for advanced packaging + test of TSMC Arizona-fabbed silicon
- 2024: Expanded 2.5D advanced-packaging capacity in Korea (K5 facility) to support AI-accelerator customers
- 2025: Vietnam facility (Bac Ninh) ramping memory and SiP volume - 2nd-phase build-out announced
- Long-standing OSAT partner to $QCOM, $NVDA, $AVGO, $TXN, $INTC across mainstream and advanced packaging
- ARM$174.62last$185.00fib−5.6%vs fibanchored by NVIDIA · Apple · AWS · Google · Microsoft · Meta · Qualcomm · MediaTek · Samsung
- 2024-02 - Microsoft Cobalt 100 announced - first MSFT-custom Arm server CPU; Azure deployment broadens
- 2024-04-09 - Google Axion (Arm v9) announced for GCP general-purpose compute
- 2024-05 - Apple M4 launched (3nm, all-Arm v9 across M-series, A18 Pro across iPhone, S-chip across watch)
- 2024-11 - AWS Graviton4 GA; Arm Neoverse V2 powers 50%+ of EC2 compute hours within targeted SKUs
- 2025 - NVIDIA Grace + Blackwell shipping at scale (Arm v9 Neoverse V2 paired with every Blackwell GPU); Rubin generation continues the Arm pairing
- 2025-09 - Google Axion GA on GCP
- 2026-Q1 - Apple M5 (3nm successor, Arm v9.x) + A19 Pro launch maintain Apple's 100% Arm-silicon stack
- 2026 - Compute Subsystems (CSS) chiplet IP in production-ready hyperscaler programs; royalty per AI accelerator unit rises as CSS-licensed designs ship
- INTC$56.28last$60.00fib−6.2%vs fibanchored by Amazon Web Services · Microsoft · Dell · HP · Lenovo · Department of Defense · IBM Cloud
- 2024-02: CHIPS Act award - $8.5B grant + $11B loan for Arizona/Ohio/New Mexico fabs
- 2024-09: Amazon Web Services ($AMZN) - multi-year 18A custom AI fabric chip + Xeon 6 supply deal
- 2024-09: Microsoft ($MSFT) - 18A custom chip design win (disclosed at Direct Connect 2024)
- 2025-01: Department of Defense - Secure Enclave / RAMP-C trusted-fab Phase 3 award
- 2025-Q2: Altera carve-out - Silver Lake acquires 51% at $8.75B EV
- 2026-Q1: Gaudi 3 - IBM Cloud ($IBM) and Dell ($DELL) as launch infrastructure partners
Co-movement matrix (252d)
AMD | AMKR | ARM | INTC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | · | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| AMKR | 0.64 | · | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| ARM | 0.63 | 0.59 | · | 0.56 |
| INTC | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.56 | · |
Related research
- 5 min readArm Holdings (ARM) Q2 FY2027: revenue up 27% to $1.44B, licensing up 50%, royalties only 8%
- 5 min readAstera Labs (ALAB) Q3: revenue up 154% to $585M, Scorpio is now the biggest product
- 5 min readVicor (VICR) Q3: $197.1M revenue, royalties tripled to $66.6M, $406M backlog
- 9 min readNVIDIA (NVDA): what it does, how it makes money, and why the AI build-out runs on it
Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the CPU Bottleneck theme?
- QuantAbundance's CPU Bottleneck theme tracks 4 stocks ranked editorially: AMD, AMKR, ARM, INTC.
- Do CPU Bottleneck stocks move together?
- The CPU Bottleneck theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.61 across its members - strong co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.