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Intel Corporation
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Structural turnaround bet, not a clean compounder. Lost server CPU share from ~95% (2017) to ~70% (2026) against $AMD EPYC; lost PC mindshare to Apple Silicon and $ARM-based Snapdragon X. 5B CHIPS Act grant. Gaudi 3 accelerator priced as $NVDA H100 alternative but software stack (oneAPI) lags CUDA by years.
- 18A node taping out customer designs; foundry external revenue inflecting from near-zero base
- CHIPS Act + DoD trusted-fab status = U.S. policy tailwind no competitor matches
- Gross margin trough behind (Q4 print) as capex depreciation peaks 2026-2027
- Datacenter CPU refresh (Sierra Forest / Granite Rapids) closes perf-per-watt gap vs $AMD
- Mobileye stake (~88%) + Altera carve-out provide non-core monetization paths
- Foundry losing $7B+/yr through 2026; break-even guidance pushed multiple times
- $NVDA owns AI training; Gaudi share in inference workloads still single-digit
- PC TAM flat; Arm-on-Windows + Apple Silicon compress x86 client moat
- Capex/revenue ratio ~25% - highest in semis; FCF negative through ramp
- Customer concentration on foundry side undisclosed; no $AAPL or $NVDA wins confirmed at scale
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