Theme
Compute Capacity
GOOGL admitted Google Cloud is leaving revenue on the table because it cannot build capacity fast enough. The bottleneck has shifted from chips to deployment - value accrues to operators with the power, real estate, and operational scale to actually deliver AI compute. These names anchor multi-billion-dollar contracted backlogs from hyperscalers (MSFT, META, GOOGL, AWS) and frontier labs (OpenAI, Anthropic), turning grid-connected MW and GPU clusters into long-dated revenue.
Stocks · key Fib levels
- #1NBIS$129.49last$113.00fib+14.6%vs fib
AI-native cloud with software stack on top. The contracted-backlog leader (~$46B) anchored by MSFT and META through 2032.
$46B backloganchored by MSFT · META · NVDA- ~$46B contracted backlog
- ~$19B Microsoft deal
- ~$27B Meta partnership through 2032
- $2B equity check from NVDA
- #2IREN$21.64last$43.00fib−49.7%vs fib
Cheapest power converted into GPU cloud. ~2.9 GW today, 140K-GPU buildout, MSFT-anchored ARR ramp into late 2026.
$10B backlog2.9 GWanchored by MSFT- $MSFT AI cloud contract: $9.7B, ~5 years, NVIDIA GB300 at Childress in four 50 MW phases (Horizon 1-4), 20% prepayment, ~$1.9B expected annual run-rate (announced 2025-11)
- Frontier AI lab: multi-year GPU cloud contract, customer and value undisclosed (2026-08)
- Mirantis: all-share acquisition closed 2026-08 (~$625M), cloud orchestration software and ~580 staff
- GPU financing: $3.6B investment-grade debt at ~6.0% for the Microsoft build; $2.4B facility at 9.0% for Mackenzie (2026-08)
- Sites: Childress 750 MW and Sweetwater 1 (1,400 MW) + 2 (600 MW) in Texas; Canal Flats, Prince George, Mackenzie in BC (~160 MW)
- FY2026 (to 2026-06-30): revenue $707.0M (AI cloud $128.8M, mining $578.2M); ~$4B contracted annual run-rate for 2026 capacity (release 2026-08-27)
- #3DOCN$72.48last$71.00fib+2.1%vs fib
The agentic-inference layer for the long tail of developers - 70% of $120M AI ARR comes from inference, growing 150% YoY.
anchored by undisclosed (long-tail: 600k+ SMB/developer accounts, no single customer >2% of revenue) · undisclosed (Paperspace AI/ML cohort - indie AI builders + small inference shops) · undisclosed (Cloudways managed-hosting agency channel)- AI customer ARR up 150% YoY to $120M
- >70% of AI revenue from inference services
- $1M+ customer ARR up 123% YoY to $133M
- #4CRWV$46.40last$96.00fib−51.7%vs fib
The frontier-lab cloud - ~$67B backlog (~$88B including Anthropic) underwritten by OpenAI and Meta.
$103.7B backloganchored by OpenAI · META · Anthropic- $103.7B of remaining performance obligations (contracted backlog) at June 30, 2026: 41% expected to be recognized within 24 months, 39% in months 25 to 48, the rest in months 49 to 78 (10-Q filed 2026-08-12)
- Anchor customers: OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic
- Debt: $35.6B of principal outstanding at June 30, 2026 (recourse $31.4B and non-recourse $3.7B, net of costs), including $6.6B of convertible notes due 2031 and 2032; operating lease liabilities $16.3B (same 10-Q)
- #5CIFR$6.54last$17.00fib−61.5%vs fib
Hyperscaler data-center landlord with Google-backed capital structure: 300 MW to Fluidstack + AWS $5.5B/15-yr at Barber Lake.
$6.9B backlog600 MWanchored by Fluidstack · GOOGL · AWS- Barber Lake: 300 MW fully contracted with Fluidstack
- Google backstops $1.4B with ~5% equity stake
- Separate AWS $5.5B 15-year deal for another 300 MW
- #6WULF$11.37last- fib
Long-term DC leases backed by Google guarantees - 360 MW Lake Mariner + 168 MW Abernathy JV ($9.5B contracted).
$12.7B backlog840 MWanchored by Fluidstack (Google credit support) · Anthropic · Core42 (G42)- Fluidstack, Lake Mariner: 378 MW of critical IT, Google credit support (backstop) on the lease obligations
- Core42 (G42), Lake Mariner: 60 MW, 10-year leases with two 5-year renewals, fully delivered
- Anthropic, Justified (Hawesville, KY): 20-year lease, ~401 MW, ~$19B first term (up to ~$33B with extensions, company estimate), first capacity H2 2027, full by early 2028 (8-K 2026-07-06)
- Abernathy, TX JV: agreement to sell the 50.1% interest to a Fluidstack-led group for ~$530M vs ~$450M invested (2026-07-06); closing not yet confirmed by filing
- Pipeline: Cayuga / Lake Hawkeye (NY, ~320 MW potential around 2029), Muskie (KY, up to 1 GW of power), Chesapeake (MD, ~210 MW station, FERC authorization 2026-07-29)
- Financing: $3.2B 7.75% senior secured notes due 2030; $2.525B convertibles due 2030-2032 (10-Q, 2026-06-30)
- #7APLD$15.55last- fib
Purpose-built AI campus model - Polaris Forge 1 (400 MW) fully leased to CoreWeave (~$11B over ~15 yrs).
$36B backlog1.4 GWanchored by CRWV- Polaris Forge 1 (Ellendale, ND): 400 MW, CoreWeave, ~$11B, 175 MW live (Jun 2026)
- Polaris Forge 2 (Harwood, ND): 200 MW, investment-grade hyperscaler, ~$5B, ROFR on 800 MW more (signed 2025-10)
- Delta Forge 1 (Boyce, LA): 300 MW, investment-grade hyperscaler, ~$7.5B, from 2027
- Polaris Forge 3 (ND): 300 MW, same hyperscaler, ~$7.5B, from 2027
- Delta Forge 2 (southern state): 210 MW, same hyperscaler, ~$5.2B, from H1 2028
- Total: ~1,410 MW, ~$36B base term (~$86B with renewals), per the FY2026 release (2026-07-27)
- BRUN$6.09last- fib
Neocloud renting GPU compute capacity for enterprise AI / HPC; a pure compute-capacity supplier.
anchored by Cohere ($525.6M over about five years, acceptance from Q2 2027) · Undisclosed customer ($207.6M, 240 GPU servers from 2026-11-30) · Undisclosed customer ($222.5M over 48 months, 1,536 NVIDIA B300 GPUs from March 2027)- 2023 : Boost Run founded in Northbrook, Illinois; builds GPU-cloud infrastructure for enterprise AI and HPC
- 2026-04-15 : software license and support agreement, $100M payable in five annual installments from October 2026 (vendor not named in the 10-Q)
- 2026-04-17 : partnership agreement with minimum purchase commitments of about $1.44B over five years ($578M in year 1, $215.5M in each of years 2 to 5); reported at listing as the GPU procurement agreement with $DELL
- 2026-05-08 : de-SPAC with Willow Lane Acquisition Corp closes; net proceeds about $114.1M; bridge and related-party loans repaid
- 2026-05-11 : trading begins on Nasdaq as BRUN
- 2026-06-08 : GPU rental agreement, about $207.6M for the initial term, 240 GPU servers from 2026-11-30 ($19.0M prepaid); amended 2026-06-27 to add 18 CPU nodes and about 6.27 PB of NVMe storage
- 2026-07-09 : order form, about $222.5M over 48 months (plus a one-year option worth about $30.6M), 192 servers with 1,536 NVIDIA B300 GPUs from March 2027
- 2026-07-16 : Rock Island, Illinois lease, 6.5 MW total load, 60 months
- 2026-07-21 : public warrants called for redemption on 2026-08-20; warrants removed from Nasdaq after the call (Form 25, 2026-08-25)
- 2026-08-13 : Pryor, Oklahoma data center lease, 144 months from 2026-12-15
- Q2 2026 (to 2026-06-30) : revenue $31.1M (Q2 2025: $8.4M); operating loss $12.9M; net loss $75.0M including a $55.7M deferred tax charge; cash $120.2M plus $13.0M restricted; finance lease liabilities $238.1M; customer deposits $128.4M (10-Q filed 2026-08-18)
- 2026-08-18 : Q1 10-Q amended: disclosure controls not effective, three material weaknesses (IT general controls, segregation of duties, finance and accounting staffing); Q1 and Q2 reports both filed after an NT 10-Q
- 2026-08-19 : resale registration of 58.7M Class A shares and 4.0M private warrants by selling holders (424B3)
- 2026-08-27 and 2026-09-14 : Sean Goodrich sells 198,200 shares at $20.15 and 500,000 shares at $14.00 (Form 4); no open-market insider purchases on file
- 2026-09-29 : RSU grants of 2.89M (CFO), 1.40M (CTO) and 0.30M (COO) shares, plus a $1M cash award to the COO (8-K filed 2026-10-05)
- 2026-09-30 : Cohere service agreement, about $525.6M over about five years per rack, acceptance from Q2 2027; Cohere may terminate and recover prepayments if a minimum is not accepted by 2027-07-15 (8-K filed 2026-10-06)
- Share count : 49,954,423 Class A and 29,533,018 Class B shares per the 10-Q cover (2026-08-17)
- DELL$328.53last$296.54fib+10.8%vs fibanchored by xAI (Colossus) · Microsoft · Meta · Hyperscalers (undisclosed)
- 2026-05-28 AMC - Q1 FY27 PRINT: Revenue $43.8B vs $35.6B est (+23% beat); EPS $4.86 vs $2.94 est (+65% beat); AI Server segment sales $16.1B (+757% YoY)
- 2026-05-28 - FY27 guidance issued: Revenue $167B vs $144B est (+16% above); EPS $17.90 vs $13.16 est (+36% above)
- ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - AI server orderbook expansion; xAI Colossus deployment publicly anchored; Microsoft + Meta hyperscaler order flow disclosed in prior quarters
- CSG (Client Solutions Group) - PC / laptop / workstation; mature low-growth segment, the structural overhang vs pure AI server names
- Pre-print setup: spot $317.67 (parabolic from ~$160 over recent weeks); mcap ~$222B at print time; analyst PT mean $212 trailed spot by $100+ - print delivered the AI server beat + raised forward guide, validating the parabolic move ahead of the data
- Setup tension RESOLVED: print delivered on the AI server segment ($16.1B vs trajectory expectations) AND the forward guide; the structural read on ISG as the AI capex beneficiary is now post-print confirmed
- Customer concentration: xAI (Colossus deployment) + Microsoft + Meta + undisclosed hyperscalers; concentrated but counterparties have multi-year capex commitments
- Source: @StockSavvyShay tweet 2026-05-28 20:11 UTC - https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/2060091643014037991
- Editorial deep-dive opportunity: post-print recap via earnings-recap skill (FY27 guide validates the bull structural read)
- 2026-05-28 post-print reaction - close $402.73 (+~30% vs prior $317.67); @KobeissiLetter breaking flag; the AH/next-session move validates the FY27 guide read at scale
- PENG$41.83last- fib
Penguin Computing builds and integrates the AI compute clusters that hyperscalers, governments, and neoclouds deploy: a capacity-buildout supplier (mirrors DELL).
anchored by hyperscalers · US Department of Defense · HPC research institutions- 2026-05-18 : Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance; sales and EPS now expected at the high end of prior ranges. Shares +18.8% on the update
- 2026-05-18 : David Heard (President, Network Infrastructure at Nokia) appointed to the board to help converge the memory + AI-infrastructure strategy
- 2026 : AI-factory demand from hyperscalers, governments, and neocloud providers; new customer wins including a Tier One financial institution; triple-digit YTD share gains
- Analyst targets : Stifel raised to $66 (from $24); Rosenblatt raised to $65 (from $54)
- 2026-07-08 : CFO Nate Olmstead to step down (offset by the AI board hire)
- Segments : Penguin Computing (AI / HPC cluster design + integration), SMART Modular (advanced memory modules), LED / optoelectronics
- SHAZ$21.81last- fib
GPU-cloud provider adding about 132 MW of AI-factory capacity: a pure compute-capacity supplier.
132 MWanchored by ESDS Software Solution Limited ($1.26B services arrangement, signed Q1 2026) · Global technology company, Asia-Pacific (about $950M over five years, May 2026) · Global AI laboratory (about $1.32B over five years, revenue from Q1-Q2 2027) · Global AI platform (about $373M over five years, revenue from Q1 2027)- 2025-12 : de-SPAC with Roth CH Acquisition closes; the company becomes SharonAI Holdings (Nasdaq: SHAZ)
- Q1 2026 : $1.26B customer services arrangement with ESDS Software Solution Limited; about $720M of expected capex (10-Q, Note 20)
- 2026-05 : about $950M, five-year contract with a global technology company in Asia-Pacific; about $400M of hardware, about 20% deposit paid (10-Q, Note 20)
- 2026-05 : $350M 6.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031
- 2026-06 : $700M 4.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032
- 2026-06 : six-year AI infrastructure compute collaboration with NVIDIA, about $4B of committed hardware procurement (10-Q, Note 20)
- 2026-06-30 : cash and equivalents $1.86B; convertible notes carried at $1.0065B (10-Q)
- Q2 2026 : revenue $1.93M (Q2 2025: $0.38M), gross profit $1.17M, operating loss $24.8M, net loss $430.4M including a $400.4M change in fair value of convertible notes (10-Q)
- After 2026-06-30 (subsequent events in the 10-Q) : about $1.32B five-year contract with a global AI laboratory (New Zealand, revenue from Q1-Q2 2027, about $765M of commitments) and about $373M five-year contract with a global AI platform (2,048 NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra B300 GPUs, revenue from Q1 2027, about $217M of commitments)
- Capacity : about 132 MW of AI-factory capacity, about 116 MW contracted; 15 MW with GreenSquareDC (ready-for-service target 2026-09-26, 120-month term); 72 MW with NEXTDC (about $623M, five phases April to August 2027); 14 MW in New Zealand
- 2026-09-23 : Ernst & Young engaged as auditor for fiscal 2026, replacing HoganTaylor (8-K filed 2026-09-24)
- 2026-09-28 : syndicated facility for up to $356M senior secured term loans (Facility A up to $150M at 7.25% rising to 9.95%, Facility B up to $206M at 9.95%), 42-month bullet maturity, 18-month make-whole; non-recourse to the parent once Facility A is repaid (8-K filed 2026-10-01)
- Share count : 35,667,164 Class A and 136,341 Class B shares per the 10-Q cover (2026-08-05)
- STX$460.99last- fib
Mass-capacity HDD storage = AI cold-storage layer underneath the GPU compute tier. Every hyperscaler AI program needs petabytes/exabytes of warm + cold storage backing the training corpus and inference state.
anchored by Hyperscalers (undisclosed mix) · AWS · Microsoft Azure · Google Cloud · Meta- 2024-2025 - Mozaic 3+ (HAMR) drives qualified at multiple hyperscalers; ramping production volumes through CY2025
- 2025 - Long-term capacity-commitment agreements signed with hyperscaler set (specific terms undisclosed; pattern visible in Seagate IR commentary on "multi-year visibility")
- 2025-Q4 - HAMR mix climbing on a per-quarter basis; ASP per drive lifting independent of unit volume
- 2026-Q1 - Quarterly print + HAMR roadmap update (Mozaic 3+ → next-generation areal density)
- 2026 - STX guides multi-year HAMR ramp into 4-5 TB/platter generation; duopoly structure (STX + WDC) holds
- WDC$263.78last- fib
Mass-capacity HDD = AI cold-storage layer of the compute stack. Post-SanDisk-spinoff WDC is pure-play HDD; same datacenter capacity demand as $STX.
anchored by Hyperscalers (undisclosed mix) · AWS · Microsoft Azure · Google Cloud · Meta · OEM channel- 2025-Q1 - SanDisk spinoff completed; WDC now pure-play HDD + enterprise
- 2025 - ePMR drives shipping at scale; HAMR drives qualified at hyperscalers, ramping production
- 2025 - Multi-year hyperscaler capacity commitments (specific terms undisclosed; visible in 10-Q "multi-year visibility" commentary)
- 2026-Q1 - HAMR mix climbing per quarter; ASP per drive lifting on mix-shift
- 2026 - Duopoly structure (WDC + STX) intact; multi-year HAMR ramp roadmap
Co-movement matrix (252d)
APLD | BRUN | CIFR | CRWV | DELL | DOCN | IREN | NBIS | PENG | SHAZ | STX | WDC | WULF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | · | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.31 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.79 |
| BRUN | 0.73 | · | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| CIFR | 0.77 | 0.66 | · | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.85 |
| CRWV | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.64 | · | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.43 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| DELL | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 0.34 | · | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| DOCN | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.45 | · | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| IREN | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.33 | 0.37 | · | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| NBIS | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 0.82 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.67 | · | 0.48 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| PENG | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.48 | · | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| SHAZ | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.49 | · | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| STX | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.34 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 0.47 | · | 0.89 | 0.48 |
| WDC | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.89 | · | 0.51 |
| WULF | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.48 | 0.51 | · |
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the top stocks in the Compute Capacity theme?
- QuantAbundance's Compute Capacity theme tracks 13 stocks ranked editorially: NBIS, IREN, DOCN, CRWV, CIFR, WULF, APLD, BRUN, DELL, PENG, plus 3 more.
- Do Compute Capacity stocks move together?
- The Compute Capacity theme has a 252-day average correlation of 0.55 across its members - decent co-movement. Editorial themes are narrative groupings, not capital-flow validated; tradability follows correlation, not the story.