VST

Three-leg structural read:

- Contracted nuclear - 2,609 MW sold to Meta on 20-year PPAs from the PJM fleet, announced 2026-01-09: 1,268 MW from Perry and 908 MW from Davis-Besse operating, plus 433 MW of uprates (213 MW Perry, 80 MW Davis-Besse, 140 MW Beaver Valley).

Operating volumes deliver from late 2026 through year-end 2027; uprate volumes from 2031 through year-end 2034. This converts merchant nuclear output into two decades of contracted cash flow, and is the largest set of nuclear uprates supported by a corporate customer in the US.

- Merchant gas plus retail - about 50 GW after the $4B Cogentrix deal (10 gas plants, ~5.5 GW). TXU Energy and Dynegy retail serve ~5M customers, so wholesale length is matched against a retail book instead of being sold naked into the spot market.

- Helix channel - Vistra is the named preferred power provider to Helix Digital Infrastructure, launched 2026-06-11 by KKR with the Kuwait Investment Authority and NVIDIA, with more than $10B of long-duration capital committed and former AWS CEO Adam Selipsky running it.

This is a siting and distribution channel into hyperscaler demand, not a booked contract.

Bear:

- The Meta PPA is 2,609 MW of a ~50 GW fleet. The majority of cash flow stays merchant, so power prices and PJM/ERCOT capacity auctions move the print more than the AI headline does.

- The 433 MW of uprates depends on NRC approval and execution stretching to 2034. It is not generation that exists today.

- Nuclear concentration cuts both ways: an unplanned outage at Perry, Davis-Besse or Comanche Peak hits contracted delivery and the merchant book at the same time.

- Operations and multiple have moved in opposite directions. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.767B, up 30% year over year, and FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed at $6.8B to $7.6B, while the stock is down 20.6% over twelve months.