Photonics

Owns the laser + optical switching side of the trade. One of the cleanest pure plays on AI optical demand.

• 2026-Q1 - NVIDIA multi-year strategic agreement: $2B equity investment in Lumentum to fund R&D, future capacity, and US-based fab buildout; named partner for advanced optics technologies
• 2026-Q2 (FY26 Q2 print) - Revenue $665.5M, +66% YoY; AI optical mix increasing
• 2026-Q3 (FY26 Q3 print, ended 2026-03-28) - Record revenue $808M, +90% YoY; OCS backlog disclosed >$400M; under-shipping demand by 25-30% (capacity constrained)
• 2026 - Co-packaged optics (CPO) incremental multi-hundred-million-dollar order; deliverable H1 calendar 2027
• 2026-05 - YTD stock return +166%, market cap ~$75.53B (per Macrotrends 2026-05-15)
• Setup tension: largest pure-play optical exposure on the US tape benefits from NVIDIA-anchored AI bandwidth demand and CPO ramp, but NVIDIA concentration (named strategic partner + ~$2B holder) is also the single-counterparty risk; the new US fab adds execution risk on top of valuation that already prices in flawless scaling
• Editorial deep-dive: /articles/roundhill-lyte-photonics-etf - LITE is the largest disclosed pure-play in the $LYTE ETF universe

Wins from lasers, modules, and networking hardware that power hyperscale AI infrastructure and cloud expansion.

• 2022-07 - Coherent Inc. acquisition closed (II-VI renamed Coherent Corp. in 2022-09) (Bain Capital convertible preferred helped fund it)
• 2023-12-04 - DENSO and Mitsubishi Electric invest $500M each for 12.5% apiece of the silicon carbide subsidiary, with long-term substrate supply agreements
• 2025-09-02 - Aerospace & Defense business sale closed
• 2026-01-30 - Munich materials processing tools business sale closed
• 2026-03-02 - NVIDIA strategic agreement: $2B investment, multibillion-dollar multi-year purchase commitment, capacity rights (non-exclusive)
• 2026-06-16 - Sherman, Texas 6-inch InP fab expansion breaks ground with NVIDIA; CHIPS Act letter of intent for up to $50M
• 2026-08-12 - FY2026: revenue $7.12B, Q4 $2.05B (+34% y/y), $1.723B of debt repaid in the year; Q1 FY2027 guide $2.2-2.4B
• 2027-H2 (targeted) - Co-packaged and network-packaged optics launch

One of the best ways to play AI optical transceivers - major hyperscaler demand for 800G and 1.6T connectivity.

• 2026-03-31 Q1 FY26 - revenue $151.1M (+51% YoY vs Q1 FY25 $99.9M); 5th consecutive sequentially-accelerating quarter (SEC EDGAR 10-Q)
• 2025-12-31 FY25 - revenue $455.7M (+83% YoY vs FY24 $249.4M). The inflection year (SEC EDGAR 10-K)
• Quarterly trajectory: Q1'25 $99.9M → Q2 $103.0M → Q3 $118.6M → Q4 $134.2M → Q1'26 $151.1M
• Product line: 400G + 800G optical transceivers (LR4 / FR4 / DR4 form factors) for hyperscaler datacenter AI compute clusters
• Customer concentration: Amazon Web Services historically ~50% of revenue; Microsoft + Cisco material; specific quarterly customer mix not disclosed
• Capital structure: shares outstanding 80.24M (+49.96% YoY from ~53M base). +50% YoY dilution material to per-share economics; per-share revenue growth ~22% in FY25 vs 83% topline
• 2026-05-28 read-through - DELL Q1 FY27 print disclosed $24.4Bn AI orders booked + raised FY27 AI server guide to ~$60Bn (+144% YoY). Every $1 of AI server revenue carries embedded optical interconnect spend; AAOI is the dominant US-listed 400G/800G pure-play
• Snapshot 2026-05-29: spot $154.66 (−8.54% session), 30% off ATH ~$220-230. Market cap $12.42Bn, EV $13.40Bn. TTM revenue $506.9M = P/S 24.5x, EV/Sales 26.4x. Peer comp: CRDO ~14x, LITE ~3.5x, CIEN ~2.2x
• Setup tension: hypergrowth (+50%) + hyperdilution (+50%) + customer concentration (~50% on Amazon). Bull case is sustained sequential acceleration through FY26 toward $700-750M revenue + hyperscaler capex confirmation from DELL/MSFT/META capex disclosures. Bear case is Amazon capex revision, continued dilution outpacing topline, or competitive pressure from Coherent + CRDO scaling. Next print Q2 FY26 ~early August 2026.

Benefits from the push toward faster semiconductor-to-optical integration as AI infrastructure scales.

• LEO satellite terminal design wins - Sivers has disclosed engagements with multiple LEO ground-terminal makers for 60 GHz and Ka-band phased-array antenna modules targeting constellation broadband programs
• 5G mmWave infrastructure - beamforming IC supply agreements with radio unit manufacturers serving Tier-1 telecom operators deploying 28 GHz urban small cells
• Automotive radar modules - 77/79 GHz front-end IC development agreements with automotive radar module suppliers for ADAS and Level 2+ driver-assistance systems
• Silicon photonics co-development - Sivers Photonics unit engaged in co-packaged optics R&D partnerships targeting hyperscaler datacenter interconnect applications
• EU research grants - repeated participation in Horizon Europe and Vinnova-funded projects for 6G and next-generation radar, validating IP but not yet generating material product revenue
• 2026-06-09 : ALL.SPACE $8.2M order - production order for 2027 multi-beam Ka-band beamforming ICs (multi-orbit LEO / MEO / GEO satcom); ALL.SPACE serves US Army / Navy and runs trials across Telesat / SES / Viasat networks
• York Space Systems (NYSE: YSS) acquiring ALL.SPACE - pulls Sivers BFICs into a US defense prime supply chain (the design-in compounds beyond the single PO)
• 2026-06 : GlobalFoundries silicon-photonics collaboration - co-packaged optics (CPO), linear pluggable optics (LPO), and datacenter-interconnect architectures for AI infrastructure
• 2026-03 : O-Net + Enablence external light source - laser-array light-source modules supporting the CPO roll-out in AI datacenters and HPC systems
• NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion LiDAR - Sivers wireless content designed into the autonomous-driving sensor stack

Controls a huge part of the DSP + interconnect story with optical networking chips and high-speed connectivity.

• 2021 - Inphi acquisition closed ($10B) - coherent-optical DSP leadership
• 2024 - AWS Trainium2 + Trainium3 custom-silicon programs ramping
• 2024 - Microsoft Maia 100 / successor program co-designed with Marvell
• 2025 - Coherent-optical DSPs inside 800G + 1.6T pluggables shipping in volume
• 2025-Q4 - Hyperscaler AI silicon revenue mix climbing; legacy networking mix shrinking as share of revenue
• 2026-Q1 - Quarterly print; AI silicon revenue commentary the watch
• 2026 - Multi-generation custom AI ASIC programs visible 2-3 years forward

Sits at the center of AI networking through switching, custom silicon, and optical interconnect demand.

• Nov 2023 - Closed $69B VMware acquisition; began subscription conversion + portfolio trim
• Sep 2024 - Disclosed third large hyperscaler XPU customer in development (unnamed)
• Dec 2024 - Guided AI semi SAM to $60-90B by FY27 across 3 hyperscaler customers
• 2024-2026 - $GOOGL TPU v5/v6/v7 silicon co-design (multi-generation)
• 2024-2026 - $META MTIA v1/v2 inference + training silicon partner
• 2026 - Multi-year $AAPL wireless component extension signed; RF baseline through FY28+
• Ongoing - Tomahawk 5 (51.2T) shipping; Tomahawk 6 (102.4T) sampling for AI scale-out fabrics

The Ethernet backbone moving massive AI workloads across hyperscale clusters and data centers.

• 2025 → 2026-05 - Channel overthrow rejection: stock ran $30 → $185.30 high inside multi-year ascending channel; recent rejection above the upper trendline, sharp reversal to $141.75 (~24% drawdown in days) on heavy volume
• Customer concentration: META historically >20% of revenue (anchor per multi-year 10-K disclosures); MSFT major hyperscaler customer; ORCL Stargate consortium exposure as the AI infrastructure buildout scales
• Product line: EOS network OS, datacenter / cloud / AI networking, Etherlink AI fabric portfolio (800G shipping); positioned in the AI Ethernet camp vs InfiniBand (NVDA-led)
• Competitive: incumbents CSCO + JNPR (post-HPE acquisition) losing DC share; ANET's pure-play software-driven model + EOS state-sharing OS is the differentiator
• Snapshot 2026-05-07: spot $141.75 (down from $185.30 52w high), mcap ~$178.49B, fwd PE 32.1, P/S 18.4, EV/EBITDA 40.7. Op margin 42.7%, gross margin 63.5%, ROE 31.5%, total debt ZERO, $9.82 cash/share. 52w range $83.86 - $179.80, beta 1.67, avg vol 8.0M shares
• Setup tension: pristine fundamentals + primary networking-optical bubble status (weight 1.0, "Datacenter switching leader") vs heavy-volume distribution candle from a parabolic top; chart-entry verdict 2026-05-07 was WAIT pending 4H reclaim of the 50d SMA before the dip becomes the trade
• Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (Q1 FY26). yfinance consensus: EPS $0.88, revenue $2.82B. 89d out - no near-term catalyst risk

Supplies the specialty glass + fiber needed for the optical transport layer behind AI infrastructure.

• 2024-10: Lumen $LUMN multi-year fiber supply agreement, reserves ~10% of GLW fiber capacity through 2027
• 2024-Q4: AT&T $T expanded fiber order, terms undisclosed
• 2025-Q1: Verizon $VZ multi-year fiber renewal
• 2025-2026: Hyperscaler datacenter fiber book "more than tripled" YoY per Q1 2026 call; counterparties undisclosed but management referenced top-4 cloud names
• Ongoing: $AAPL Ceramic Shield co-development for iPhone cover glass (multi-generation)
• Springboard plan target: +$3B annualized run-rate sales by end-2026 vs 2023 baseline

Benefits from building and scaling the actual hardware behind networking systems and optical modules.

• Cloud/AI server ODM - builds rack-scale AI compute + liquid-cooling for hyperscaler customers; Intelligent Infrastructure segment grew double-digit FY25 on AI mix
• Capital equipment - multi-year contract manufacturing for semicap OEMs ($AMAT, $LRCX-tier tooling subassemblies)
• Healthcare devices - long-cycle programs for diagnostics, surgical robotics, and drug-delivery OEMs (Regulated Industries anchor)
• EV power electronics - inverter + onboard charger programs for legacy OEMs and EV startups
• Mobility divestiture (FY24) - sold legacy $AAPL-heavy mobility business to BYD Electronic for $2.2B; pivoted toward higher-margin infrastructure + regulated mix
• Capital return - $1B+ annual buyback authorization extended through FY26

Wins from burn-in + testing demand as AI ASICs and high-power optical hardware move into production.

• ON Semiconductor - multi-year SiC wafer-level burn-in contract, historically 50%+ of revenue; 2024 pause flagged on Q3 FY24 call
• Tier-1 AI processor maker - first FOX-XP order shipped FY25 (customer unnamed; management framed as hyperscaler-adjacent)
• GaN power device customer - pilot system shipped 2025, qualification in progress
• Silicon photonics customer - WaferPak development contract announced 2025
• Multi-market WaferPak business - recurring consumable revenue, mid-single-digit million per quarter floor

Focused on lower-cost optical engines designed to improve efficiency inside AI data centers.

• 2026-05-14 - Q1 FY2026 print: rev $503,389 (NRE + product), net loss $12.3M, EPS -$0.08 vs Street -$0.05 (miss by $0.03)
• 2026-05-14 - Disclosed $50M purchase order from Lumilens for optical engine modules. Forward-looking - track conversion timing + realized $ vs disclosed face value
• 2026-05-14 - Stock +29.4% to $18.59 on the combined Q1 + Lumilens headline; multiple now fully detached from print
• 2026-05 - Short interest 12.42M shares = 8.13% of OS (MarketBeat data). Others on the trade but not crowded-to-squeeze territory (vs 20%+ classic squeeze setups)
• Q1 FY26 revenue cadence: $166,760 (Q1 25) → $503,389 (Q1 26) - growing off a small base; still ~zero relative to opex
• TTM snapshot 2026-05: revenue ~$1.07M, net loss -$62.96M, quarterly burn $12-15M. Cash runway is the recurring catalyst - every 6-12mo financing cycle has historically diluted shareholders into the next narrative beat
• Mcap implied ~$2.84B (152.8M sh OS × $18.59 spot, derived from SI ratio). TTM P/S ~2650× - multiple is on the CPO narrative + the next AVGO/NVDA/ANET CPO catalyst, not the underlying revenue
• Setup tension: real CPO theme (NVDA Spectrum-X optical, AVGO 200G/lane silicon photonics, ANET Etherlink AI fabric) means POET is the cheapest-lottery-ticket screen on the bubble - but $1M TTM revenue against a $2.8B mcap and chronic dilution cadence mean the short setup tells are equally real. Both sides visible; flow-driven name

Pushing next-gen polymer photonics that could make optical communication faster and more efficient.

• 2025-Q4 - Polariton-branded MZM commercial samples available for purchase; first revenue-bearing shipments of EO polymer device.
• 2025 - DOE Microelectronics Commons award via AIM Photonics consortium; non-dilutive funding for foundry-scale polymer integration.
• 2024 - Multi-year materials supply MOU with Polariton Technologies (Swiss MZM fab) for joint commercialization.
• 2024 - Polymer slot-waveguide demonstrated on commercial silicon-photonics PDK; 110 GHz bandwidth at sub-2V drive published.
• Ongoing - Evaluation engagements with undisclosed hyperscaler and optical-module OEM customers under NDA.

Exposure to advanced laser systems supporting precision photonics and next-gen optical demand.

• LightSolver Ltd. exclusive global license - foundational agreement granting worldwide rights to deploy LightSolver LPU technology, including the qc-LPU100 system, for blockchain, DePIN, and AI HPC applications (signed Sept 2025 via LPU Holdings LLC acquisition)

Specialty optics and photonic components tied to industrial, defense, and AI-driven systems.

• 2024: Multi-year IR camera assembly award with undisclosed US defense prime (announced as "Mantis" production program)
• 2024: BlackDiamond chalcogenide-glass supply agreement with a tier-1 thermal-sight integrator (germanium-substitute design win)
• 2023: Acquired Visimid Technologies - adds custom IR camera engineering capability, expands assembly mix
• 2023: Multiple thermal-imaging design wins flagged post China Ge export controls (Aug 2023)
• Ongoing: Industrial laser-optics supply to $IPGP, $COHR, and other fiber/CO2 laser OEMs (legacy core business)

Connectivity + infrastructure side helping AI clusters scale faster.

• 2026 Q1: Scorpio P-Series PCIe Gen6 fabric switches sampling to hyperscalers; production ramp guided H2 2026.
• 2025 Q4: Disclosed design wins on NVDA GB300 NVL72 platform - Aries + Scorpio attach.
• 2025: Sole-source PCIe retimer on multiple AWS Trainium2 / Inferentia server SKUs.
• 2025: COSMOS software suite extended to fleet-wide telemetry across all four product lines.
• 2024 Q1: IPO at $36 (Mar 2024), priced above range; first pure-play AI interconnect public listing.

Pure-play coherent-optics DCI vendor - WaveLogic 6/7 ramp + AI scaleout DCI traffic. The photonic layer connecting hyperscaler campuses.

• 2025 - WaveLogic 6 (1.6T per wavelength) shipping at scale to hyperscalers + Tier-1 telcos
• 2025 - Multiple multi-year hyperscaler DCI commitments (terms not disclosed individually)
• 2025-Q4 / 2026-Q1 - Hyperscaler revenue mix climbing per quarter as cloud + AI DCI capex re-prioritizes
• 2026 - WaveLogic 7 development; next-generation coherent optics roadmap
• 2026 - Photonic-integrated-circuit (PIC) integration deeper across product line

Builds the optical transceivers, lasers, and photonic assemblies that the networking-optical OEMs design but do not in-source.

• 2026-Q1: $NVDA disclosed as >10% customer; multi-product engagement on datacenter transceivers and cable assemblies.
• 2025-Q4: Building 10 (Thailand) ramp on schedule; adds ~25% optical assembly capacity for FY27 1.6T ramp.
• 2025: 800G transceiver shipments now the largest single product line by revenue; growth concentrated in datacom over telecom.
• Ongoing: Multi-decade $CIEN / $NOK / $LITE / $CSCO telecom and datacom transceiver programs; automotive lidar manufacturing for multiple OEMs.
• Capital return: $300M buyback authorization active; no dividend, no debt.