Vistra (VST) Q3 2026: Adjusted EBITDA up 50%, 2027 guide of $7.7B to $8.5B, Cogentrix closed

$VST reported Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $2,378M for the third quarter, against $1,581M a year ago, "more than 50%" higher in the company's words. Net income came in at $1,140M, of which $559M is an unrealized gain on hedges that settle in future years. The forward line matters more than the quarter: Vistra narrowed its 2026 range to $7.1B to $7.5B of Adjusted EBITDA and opened 2027 at $7.7B to $8.5B, with 98% of next year's expected generation already hedged. This recap walks the print, the guide, the cash and buybacks, and the read across the Datacenter Power bubble.

The print

$VST reported the quarter ended September 30, 2026.

Adjusted EBITDA by segment:

What moved the numbers, per the release:

• Prices. Higher realized energy and capacity prices drove most of the $797M EBITDA increase.
• Lotus. Three months of contribution from the gas plants bought from Lotus.
• Martin Lake Unit 1 back in operation in Texas.
• Below EBITDA. Higher depreciation (the Lotus plants), a partial impairment of the Moss Landing 350 battery facility in California, and higher taxes.

The guide

• Hedging as of October 30: about 100% of expected generation for 2026, 98% for 2027 and 78% for 2028. The 2027 range is mostly price-locked already.
• Nine-month Adjusted EBITDA of $5,639M puts 2026 in the range with one quarter left.

The cash and the buybacks

• Operating cash flow of $4,330M over nine months, against $2,638M a year ago.
• Buybacks. About $6.7B repurchased since November 2021, about 339M shares outstanding on November 2 (a 30% reduction since 2021). The new $1.5B authorization leaves about $2.5B, to be used by year-end 2028.
• Liquidity. About $8.9B on September 30, falling to about $5.4B pro forma after October and November moves: the $1B Series A preferred redeemed, about $2.2B of cash paid for Cogentrix and about $1.7B of Cogentrix debt repaid.

Growth projects

• Cogentrix Energy, about 5,500 MW of natural gas generation, closed in October.
• Pulaski Solar (405 MW, Illinois) started operations under a power purchase agreement with Microsoft; Deer Creek (100 MW solar and storage, California) started too.
• Odessa. A 20-year, 207 MW PPA with New Era Energy and Digital at the Odessa combined cycle plant in Texas: gas capacity sold on a long contract, the pattern the thesis watches for.

Datacenter Power read-through

The standing QA thesis on /stocks/vst has three legs: contracted nuclear (2,609 MW sold to Meta on 20-year PPAs from the PJM fleet, deliveries from late 2026), merchant gas matched against the TXU and Dynegy retail book, and the Helix data center channel.

• Gas plus retail. Confirmed: Texas EBITDA up 57% on a hot summer, Cogentrix adds scale, and a 98% hedged 2027 keeps the merchant exposure narrow.
• Contracted demand. One more long PPA (Odessa, 207 MW). The Meta nuclear volumes and Helix are not updated in the release.
• Capital return. The buyback keeps shrinking the share count while the company spends on acquisitions.

Net read: the quarter and the 2027 range support the "contracted cash flow" leg; the next data center contract is what the thesis still waits for.

Peer reaction

$VST's closest correlated names in the QA universe over 252 days are $TLN (0.82), $CEG (0.80) and $NRG (0.78). The release came before the open on November 6; the session reaction was not established when this recap was written.

What worked

• Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA of $2.38B, up 50%.
• A 2027 range above the 2026 one, 98% hedged.
• $1.5B of new buyback authorization.

What broke

• Moss Landing. A $269M impairment, mostly the partial impairment of the Moss Landing 350 battery facility.
• Liquidity down to about $5.4B pro forma after the Cogentrix payment and debt repayment.
• The tape. A $112.89 close on November 5 before the release, down 28% over a month and 40% over a year in the data QA tracks.

What to watch

• The webcast and the 10-Q: Cogentrix's contribution in the 2027 range, and any data center contract at the nuclear plants.
• Meta deliveries from the Perry and Davis-Besse operating volumes, scheduled from late 2026.
• Buyback pace against the remaining $2.5B.
• Levels. The curated Fibonacci level on VST sits at $140, above the November 5 close.

The level map, the peer table and the standing thesis live on /stocks/vst, with the company primer in Vistra explained. The full $VST dossier collects the filings and the numbers. To follow the power names as a group, see the Datacenter Power bubble.

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Educational research on structural market dynamics. Not investment advice. QuantAbundance positions may change without notice.