Situational Awareness LP
Leopold Aschenbrenner
Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-supercycle hedge fund (Situational Awareness LP, San Francisco), launched late 2024 after the founder left OpenAI's Superalignment team. Aschenbrenner (25) wrote the canonical AGI-imminence essay "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"; the book is the financial expression of that thesis. **2026-05-27 SC 13G DISCLOSURE - $NBIS at 5.6%.** Filed a 12,410,060 Class A share stake in Nebius Group, ~$2.59B at filing-date close ($208.37). This is the SINGLE LARGEST position ever disclosed by the fund - bigger than the $2.04B SMH put or the $1.57B NVDA put from the Q1 2026 13F-HR. NBIS is the ex-Yandex N.V. AI-compute infrastructure spinoff, US-listed on NASDAQ since late 2024, operating NVIDIA H100/H200 GPU clusters in Finland and serving AI labs + enterprises via Nebius AI Cloud. Acquired between 2026-03-31 (Q1 13F cutoff) and the 2026-05-27 disclosure. The 13G adds a NEW thematic leg on top of the Q1 book: a direct operational-AI-compute long - owning the running cluster business itself, not just the supply chain feeding it. Q1 2026 13F-HR (period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-18) documents the tactical pivot quarter: 42 positions, $13.68B total notional - 2.5× the Q4 2025 book. The portfolio is 62% SHORT via $8.46B in puts hitting the entire chip stack - SMH ($2.04B), NVDA ($1.57B), AMD ($969M), AVGO ($1.01B), ORCL ($1.07B), ASML ($494M), plus straddles on MU and TSM. The long side held the AI-infrastructure-bottleneck thesis: Bloom Energy ($879M anchor + $55M calls), SanDisk tripled to $1.11B aggregate (long+calls), CoreWeave ~$700M, all nine BTC-miners-to-HPC names retained (CORZ $389M, IREN $401M, APLD $320M, RIOT $142M, CLSK $104M, BITF, BTDR, HIVE, CIFR-out). Three new names this quarter: SHAZ, TE, HIVE. Activist tier: CORZ 13D at 9.4%, position held through Q1. Pattern reads as: short the picks-and-shovels priced for AGI buildout, long the infrastructure (power generation, datacenter colo housed in ex-miner shells, NAND/HBM) - and now ALSO long the operational AI compute layer via NBIS - that the market hasn't fully priced.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Portfolio Context - Q2 2026
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP is the hedge fund of the 25-year-old ex-OpenAI Superalignment researcher who published the influential 'Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead' essay in mid-2024. The fund launched late 2024, backed by Patrick Collison, Daniel Gross, and Nat Friedman, with a single mandate: trade the financial expression of the situational-awareness thesis - that AGI arrives by 2027-2028 and the entire industrial base of the West bends to make it happen.
The Q4 2025 13F-HR (filed February 2026) and Q1 2026 13F-HR (filed May 2026) document a portfolio that maps almost exclusively to AI-infrastructure bottlenecks rather than to obvious AI-demand names. The book holds zero Mag-7 longs through Q1 2026 and instead concentrates capital on Bloom Energy (on-site fuel-cell power for AI datacenters), SanDisk (NAND flash for AI-storage tier), CoreWeave (the GPU-cloud neocloud), the nine bitcoin-miners-converting-to-AI-HPC names (APLD, CORZ, IREN, RIOT, CLSK, BITF, BTDR, HIVE, CIFR-exited), and a Q1 2026 chip-short stack ($8.5B of puts on SMH, NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, AMD) that telegraphs the tactical view that picks-and-shovels are over-priced relative to power-and-bandwidth.
For retail traders, Aschenbrenner's 13F is the cleanest available expression of a single-thesis, bottleneck-first AI investing framework. The construction is the lesson: capital flows to where the constraint binds, not to where the narrative is loudest. The hyperscalers and AI-software names that dominate every retail AI-trade list are absent. Power, storage, GPU-cloud, and bitcoin-miner-conversion are the entire long book.
Teardown dossiers on these holdings
The teardown in writing, the SEC filings in one table, peers and the level map, one read per name.
Top holdings
ranked by weight- #1SNDKweight28.03%$5.7Bvalue$835.06last
- #2MUweight27.54%$5.6Bvalue$690.00last
- #3BEweight9.38%$1.9Bvalue$173.24last
- #4TSMweight6.25%$1.3Bvalue$375.44last
- #5NBISweight6.09%$1.2Bvalue$129.49last
- #6CRWVweight3.68%$745Mvalue$46.40last
- #7CORZweight3.29%$666Mvalue$11.76last
- #8STMweight2.89%$584Mvalue$41.72last
- #9APLDweight2.32%$469Mvalue$15.55last
- #10RIOTweight2.31%$468Mvalue$16.71last
- #11SHAZweight2.26%$457Mvalue$21.81last
- #12CLSKweight0.88%$179Mvalue$6.16last
- #13KEELweight0.75%$152Mvalue- last
- #14SEIweight0.45%$91Mvalue$57.77last
- #15TEweight0.23%$46Mvalue$2.36last
- #16BECALLweight0.22%$44Mvalue$173.24last
- #17HIVEweight0.16%$33Mvalue$1.78last
- #18BWweight0.14%$29Mvalue$3.25last
- #19PUMPweight0.14%$28Mvalue$6.39last
- #20TSMCALLweight0.12%$24Mvalue$375.44last
- #21VSHweight0.10%$20Mvalue- last
- #22INFYPUTweight0.03%$5Mvalue$12.50last
- #23CBRSweight0.01%$2Mvalue$89.68last
Frequently asked questions
- What stocks does Situational Awareness LP hold?
- Situational Awareness LP (Leopold Aschenbrenner) discloses 23 positions as of 2026-06-30. Top by weight: SNDK (28.03%), MU (27.54%), BE (9.38%), TSM (6.25%), NBIS (6.09%).
- What is Situational Awareness LP's largest position?
- SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) is Situational Awareness LP's largest disclosed position at 28.03% of the portfolio - $5.7B.
- When did Situational Awareness LP last file?
- Situational Awareness LP's most recent disclosed filing is 13F-HR for period 2026-06-30 (24 positions total).
- What is Situational Awareness LP's AUM?
- Situational Awareness LP (Leopold Aschenbrenner) manages approximately $13.7B in assets.
- Who is Situational Awareness LP?
- Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-supercycle hedge fund (Situational Awareness LP, San Francisco), launched late 2024 after the founder left OpenAI's Superalignment team. Aschenbrenner (25) wrote the canonical AGI-imminence essay "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"; the book is the financial expression of that thesis. **2026-05-27 SC 13G DISCLOSURE - $NBIS at 5.6%.** Filed a 12,410,060 Class A share stake in Nebius Group, ~$2.59B at filing-date close ($208.37). This is the SINGLE LARGEST position ever disclosed by the fund - bigger than the $2.04B SMH put or the $1.57B NVDA put from the Q1 2026 13F-HR. NBIS is the ex-Yandex N.V. AI-compute infrastructure spinoff, US-listed on NASDAQ since late 2024, operating NVIDIA H100/H200 GPU clusters in Finland and serving AI labs + enterprises via Nebius AI Cloud. Acquired between 2026-03-31 (Q1 13F cutoff) and the 2026-05-27 disclosure. The 13G adds a NEW thematic leg on top of the Q1 book: a direct operational-AI-compute long - owning the running cluster business itself, not just the supply chain feeding it. Q1 2026 13F-HR (period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-18) documents the tactical pivot quarter: 42 positions, $13.68B total notional - 2.5× the Q4 2025 book. The portfolio is 62% SHORT via $8.46B in puts hitting the entire chip stack - SMH ($2.04B), NVDA ($1.57B), AMD ($969M), AVGO ($1.01B), ORCL ($1.07B), ASML ($494M), plus straddles on MU and TSM. The long side held the AI-infrastructure-bottleneck thesis: Bloom Energy ($879M anchor + $55M calls), SanDisk tripled to $1.11B aggregate (long+calls), CoreWeave ~$700M, all nine BTC-miners-to-HPC names retained (CORZ $389M, IREN $401M, APLD $320M, RIOT $142M, CLSK $104M, BITF, BTDR, HIVE, CIFR-out). Three new names this quarter: SHAZ, TE, HIVE. Activist tier: CORZ 13D at 9.4%, position held through Q1. Pattern reads as: short the picks-and-shovels priced for AGI buildout, long the infrastructure (power generation, datacenter colo housed in ex-miner shells, NAND/HBM) - and now ALSO long the operational AI compute layer via NBIS - that the market hasn't fully priced.
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