Constellation Energy (CEG) Q3 2026: adjusted EPS $5.06, 2026 guide raised to $12.50 to $12.80, Google and Amazon nuclear deals

$CEG reported adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings of $5.06 per share for the third quarter, against $3.04 a year ago, and GAAP net income of $5.19 per share, against $2.97. Revenue reached $9,550M, up 45%, the first full year-on-year comparison carrying the Calpine gas fleet bought in January. The guide moved up for the second time this year: 2026 adjusted operating earnings are now $12.50 to $12.80 per share, from $11.50 to $12.50 before and $11.00 to $12.00 at the start of the year. This recap walks the print, the contracts signed in the quarter, the balance sheet after Calpine, and the read across the Datacenter Power bubble.

The print

$CEG reported the quarter ended September 30, 2026.

Per share growth trails the dollar growth because the share count rose with the Calpine deal, even after the buybacks.

What moved the numbers, per the release and the presentation:

• Calpine. Its plants produced 38,387 GWh in the quarter, more than half of the 44,982 GWh from gas, oil and renewables.
• Prices. Favorable market and portfolio conditions and higher capacity revenue: the PJM capacity reference price was $329.17 per MW-day against $269.92 a year ago.
• Offsets. Higher interest expense ($217M against $134M) and lower nuclear PTC revenue.
• GAAP over adjusted. The $43M gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings nets a $127M unrealized hedge gain and a $108M tax adjustment against Calpine integration costs ($73M) and decommissioning items ($56M).

Operations

• Nuclear output of 46,677 GWh, against 46,477 GWh a year ago, at a 97.2% capacity factor (96.8% a year ago), excluding Salem and South Texas Project.
• Outages: 20 refueling and 6 non-refueling outage days at the sites it operates.
• Gas and oil fleet: an Equivalent Forced Outage Factor of 5.9%, a metric reported from 2026 now that Calpine is in the fleet. Renewable energy capture was 96.4%.

The guide

The current range assumes 356M average diluted shares, against 361M in the original guide. GAAP diluted EPS over nine months is $11.06.

The contracts of the quarter

• Amazon, Calvert Cliffs. A 20-year, 690 MW PPA plus a retail supply agreement in PJM, supporting more than $3B of investment at Calvert Cliffs (Maryland), including a 190 MW expansion expected online between 2030 and 2032.
• Google, uprates. A 20-year PPA funding more than $4.3B of investment across 11 nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, for about 890 MW of added capacity, the first uprate expected in 2028. A separate 15-year financial load following agreement with Google covers 2,700 MW in PJM.
• Peak+. A first 20-year agreement for 270 MW of energy, capacity and attributes from the existing nuclear fleet, starting in 2028.
• DOE. A conditional commitment for a DOE guarantee of up to $5.0B on a 30-year Federal Financing Bank loan for uprates, at 0.375% above comparable Treasuries, subject to a final loan agreement.
• Rhode Island State Energy Center. An agreement to buy the 609 MW combined cycle gas plant from Shell for $715M, pending approvals, for the merchant fleet in ISO New England.

Management puts the new generation from these agreements at more than 1,000 MW, "the equivalent of a new large-scale nuclear plant".

The balance sheet and the cash

• Debt. Long-term debt of $19,039M and short-term borrowings of $3,989M on September 30, against $7,250M and $1,650M at the end of 2025, mostly the Calpine financing. Cash stood at $603M, down from $3,641M.
• Assets held for sale of $5,661M, against $126M at the end of 2025.
• Operating cash flow of $4,979M over nine months, against $3,432M; capital expenditures of $3,461M, against $1,963M.
• Buybacks. About $3.0B spent year to date (about 11 million shares), with about $2.0B of authorization left. Dividends paid were $459M over nine months.

Datacenter Power read-through

The standing QA thesis on /stocks/ceg: the largest US nuclear fleet, a direct beneficiary of hyperscaler demand for 24/7 baseload, with the 20-year, 1.1 GW Meta PPA in Illinois (from 2027) as the proof point.

• Long contracts with hyperscalers. Confirmed and widened: Amazon and Google join Meta, and the Google deal pays for new nuclear megawatts (uprates) rather than only existing output.
• Uprates as the growth path. The Google PPA and the DOE loan commitment both point to the same lever: more megawatts from plants already licensed, first ones from 2028.
• The gas leg. Calpine produced about four fifths as much electricity as the nuclear fleet this quarter, and Rhode Island adds more. The company is less of a pure nuclear name than the thesis line describes.

Net read: the quarter supports the thesis on contracts; the balance sheet now carries a much larger debt load and a gas fleet whose margins follow power prices.

Peer reaction

$CEG's closest correlated names in the QA universe over 252 days are $TLN (0.80), $VST (0.80) and $NRG (0.71). The release came before the open on November 9; the session reaction was not established when this recap was written. The Vistra print of November 6 is covered in the VST Q3 2026 recap and Talen's in the TLN Q3 2026 recap.

What worked

• Adjusted EPS of $5.06, up 66%, and a guide raised for the second time this year.
• Three named long-term deals in one quarter (Amazon, Google, Peak+), on top of Meta.
• A 97.2% nuclear capacity factor in a summer with record PJM peak load.

What broke

• Interest and PTC. Higher interest expense and lower nuclear PTC revenue weighed on the quarter.
• Leverage. Total debt above $23B and cash down to $603M after Calpine and $3.0B of buybacks.
• The tape. A $249.95 close on November 6 before the release, down 16% over a month and 29% over a year in the data QA tracks.

What to watch

• The call and the 10-Q: the assets held for sale, the timing of the Rhode Island closing, and the 2027 view.
• The DOE loan agreement that would turn the conditional commitment into financing.
• Uprate schedules for Calvert Cliffs and the Google units (first megawatts in 2028).
• Levels. The auto-computed 0.786 retracement of the 52-week range sits at $261.19, just above the November 6 close.

The level map, the peer table and the standing thesis live on /stocks/ceg. To follow the power names as a group, see the Datacenter Power bubble.

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Educational research on structural market dynamics. Not investment advice. QuantAbundance positions may change without notice.